The Analysis Of The Cournot Competition Among Several Manufacturers With Random Productivity

In semiconductors, food processing, biopharmaceuticals and other industries, due to production process existing some uncertain factors, the manufacturer's yield is uncertainty and productivity is random, which may affect manufacturer's production decision-making and increase the market uncertainty. Thus, looking for the interaction between random productivity and the manufacturer's production decision, studying on the impact of productivity fluctuation on the production decision and the market structure are practical significant to make right production decisions and realize the effective allocation of market resource.This thesis based on the Cournot competition, and investigates a two-stage game problem among several manufacturers with stochastic productivity. Fist, we create a two-stage game model and sovle this problem using backward induction, we first solve the second-stage game and derive the equilibrium target production quantities, then, we analyze the first-stage game to find the equilibrium number of manufacturers in the market. Secondly, we discuss the impact of the productivity fluctuation on the production planning decisions, industry output, market structure and consumer surplus, and summarize some conclusions. Finally, according to the conclusions, we put forward that when manufacturers seeking some strategic plans to improve their own competitiveness, they should consider how to lower the fluctuation of random productivity as an alternative approach, rather than focus only on how to increase productivity.