Study On Supply Chain Risk Mode Of The Coal Distribution Center

Coal distribution center is a very important part of China's coal trade ,which offers blending, transshipment, warehousing, distribution and other services and which is an important node of Chinese coal long-distance transportation. Due to coal mining places and coal consumption was separated geographically; the coal of China has been relying on the long distance transportation to meet the coal consumption of enterprises. The different enterprises has different demand for coal, if the Coal trading enterprises offer just one coal, they will soon be out of the market, For the coal trade enterprises, building a coal distribution center is very necessary. But coal distribution center isn't a simple project, so we have to determine whether it is feasible before formation.The first part: According to the operational status of coal supply chain, establishing coal supply chain model, and setting up the structure of coal distribution center based on function needs, Analyzing coal distribution center work flow. According to the engineering theory, the ROI calculation method are given, and the influencing factor on ROI are studied.The second part: According to SCOR model, identifying and classifying the risk factors of coal supply chain. Build a supply chain model based on BP neural network expert system; then designs a questionnaire, invites experts to rate. Bring the score in the BP neural network of the coal supply chain risk assessment, risk factors has been the impact on the supply chain to determine the impact of key coal supply chain risk. According to the factors of risk control, puts forward the corresponding measures of risk aversion.The third part: Combined with the theoretical model, do a case analysis of Tang Guantun coal distribution center establishment. According to the distribution center work flow to plan its structure, identify its risk factors and quantify the impact of risk factors. Application of engineering methods to calculate ROI of coal distribution center under considering and without considering the risk factors, Then determine the feasibility of building the coal distribution center.Finally, conclusion will be given: Based on the parameter-ROI, we can determine that building distribution center of the coal trade enterprises is feasible.