Study On Analysis And Optimization Of Forestry Industrial Structure In Jiangxi Province

Jiangxi is one of the main forestry provinces in China, and forestry industry is always a Jiangxi's traditional competitive industry. Due to the background of this new era, Jiangxi's forestry industry has its new historical mission and faces the question that how to adjust its industrial structure to achieve the new aim. Set output value as the measurement criteria, this research combines the qualitative methods and Quantitative Methods, to study the industrial structure of Jiangxi province. The result is based on a large amount of information and data and will provide scientific evidence and proof for the adjustment of Jiangxi's forestry industrial structure.At first, from the external aspect, this research uses output value analysis and dynamic shift-share analysis as the research method, to evaluate the status and conditions of Jiangxi's forestry industry out of national forestry industry. Then form the internal aspect, the author uses gray modeling as the research method, to calculate the gray concern degree which used to measure the relevancy between the thrice industries and the forestry industry itself, the industry department and the industry which belongs to, then analysis the running posture of them. Therefore, based on the results above, the author uses GM (1,1) model to predict the development trend of Jiangxi's forestry industrial structure. At last, this paper provides an optimum proposal of Jiangxi's forestry industrial structure, which explicit the adjustment aim, constraint conditions, and Puts forward the ways of optimization and arrangement.Based on the researches above, this paper has following conclusions:(1) The adjustment and optimization are the key factor of Jiangxi's forestry industry in the future. The pattern of Jiangxi's forestry industrial structure will keep "primary, secondary, tertiary" pattern before2015, and will shifting toward the pattern of "primary, tertiary, and secondary".(2) As the basis of Jiangxi's forestry industry, the forestry primary industry needs to shift its mode of development to consolidate the existing advantages.(3) As the main motive power of Jiangxi's forestry industry, the forestry secondary industry should keep on adjusting and optimizing its industrial structure, in order to obtain further progress.(4) As the most flourishing industry of Jiangxi's forestry industry, the forestry tertiary industry has big potentials and will become the new growth points of the whole forestry industry.