The Study On The Residential Real Estate Price Index Of Hangzhou Based On The Hedonic Model

China's real estate industry develops very fast along with the housing system reform. There is a demand market, so the real estate industry changes from a new industry to one of the pillars industries of our national economy. The health of the real estate industry is not only related to the steady and rapid development of the national economy, but also related to the well-being of millions of people.In recent years, the housing prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities in China continued to rise. Southeast Asian financial crisis and the downturn of the economic situation in Japan for ten years, one can say that the reason is the abnormal changes of real estate prices. Therefore, the price of real estate has a very important theoretical and practical significance. But if we want to find the existence and the level of the real estate bubble, we must have an accurate grasp of the trend of the real estate prices.Real estate price index is the dynamic measure of the average change of the overall price level of a particular purpose of real estate (such as engineering, commercial and residential use). In principle, real estate price index should reflect only price changes because of supply and demand, and exclude the price changes because of the change of the quality, location, environmental factors of the real estate. But in reality, the "homogeneity" of two real estates is often not met, which requires the use of repeat transactions method, hedonic price method or a hybrid approach to establish the house price index. But these methods now is not much used in China, and most of the price index in China are made by the average sales price, which has obvious defect. So far our country has not got a convincing index included the CREIS, because the basic theory of it has a big problem.In February 2010, National Bureau of Statistics revealed that in 2009 China's 70 cities housing sales price rose 1.5%, this data has been questioned by various parties. In September 2010, Jiantang Ma, the chief of National Bureau of Statistics, told the media that, National Bureau of Statistics committed to reform the statistics method of housing price in order to maintain the comparability of the historical data and reflect the cumulative change of the real estate pricesBecause of its geographical advantages, rapid economic development and the charming lake, Hangzhou has always been known for high housing prices. There is excessive speculation in Hangzhou real estate market, and the bubble continues to inflate. In May 2010, the average price of residential real estate in Hangzhou is 21452.84 yuan/square meter, ranked third in our country. Thus changes in house prices in Hangzhou, and how to measure these changes, are in the public attention.After in-depth studying of the mature theory of the hedonic pricing model and the method of establish real estate price index, this paper describes the theoretical basis of hedonic price model and the factors that affect housing prices in detail, and then select 279 specific transaction data of the residential real estate in Hangzhou in four quarters of 2009 combined with the actual situation of the real estate market in Hangzhou for research. Specifically stepwise regression, principal component analysis, Granger causality test and bootstrap method are used, taking into account the introduction of cross-variable interaction between the response variable. Finally, we can obtain the real estate price index that only reflects supply and demand of each quarter of 2009, Hangzhou, compared with the traditional weighted average price index, and calculate to do a comparative analysis. This follows the new ideas that establish a fixed base price index proposed by Jiantang Ma, the chief of National Bureau of Statistics.This paper is divided into five chapters:ChapterⅠroughly proposed the problem and the significance of research purposes and methods of the paper.ChapterⅡis a comprehensive literature review.ChapterⅢdescribe the theory basic of hedonic pricing model and the method of establish real estate price index.ChapterⅣis the empirical study of the price index of residential real estate in Hangzhou, compared with the traditional weighted average price index, and calculate to do a comparative analysis.ChapterⅤcontains conclusions, inspiration and shortcomings of the paper.This paper has three features:1. The current empirical study of the real estate prices in China more stops at the impact of various quality characteristics to the housing price, and very few study is derived from hedonic price model to make quality adjustments in housing prices to calculate the price index, while the article is trying to make such a study;2. This paper follows the new idea proposed by Jiantang Ma, the chief of National Bureau of Statistics;3. By building housing hedonic price model for Hangzhou, this paper provides valuable information for similar studies of Hangzhou and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta in the future.