Research On The Evaluation Of Northeast Power Grid Generation Expansion Plan For Macro Decision-Making

After the market reform of electric power industry in our country, power plants and power grid departed, power plants become the investment decision-makers, its object of investment decisions is to maximize investment benefits, not to minimize the construction costs of the whole networks in tradition generation expansion plan. In recent years, the phenomenon of power plants seizing the generation space is very serious, the condition has made the building generations into disordered situation, the structure of generations lost balance already.To find the problems of generation expansion plan better for electricity regulatory commission, this paper builds an evaluation system from level of system operation. The contents includes:power balance calculation; analysis of peaking capacity; wind power accommodation capacity; generation utilization analysis; coordination analysis among power grid construction and generation expansion plan.Using the evaluation system, this paper evaluates the generation expansion plan of Northeast power grid from 2010 to 2020. According to difference between peak and valley load increasing year by year, this paper distils three year from 2010 to 2020 as planning years which represent the loads at different stages,2010,2015 and 2020, in each planning year two typical days in winter and summer is As the basis of the analysis. In calculation models, according to the operating pattern in Northeast power grid, this paper adopts the models of balance of the whole network and provincial balances in Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia.The evaluation results show:too much power constructions before 2013; proportion of peaking units capacity declining, lack of peaking capacity in winter heating period, effecting the safe system operation; rapid pace of development of wind power, lack of accommodation of wind power in winter; low utilization hours of thermal units because of too much units before 2015; grid construction lags behind generation plan in Huolinhe and Chifeng before 2012. According to the evaluation results, this paper gives the specific recommendations solving the problem of lack of peak regulation capacity for northeast power grid from four parts:carry out demand-side management; strengthen the construction of peaking units; encourage power plants into peak regulation; expand scope of wind power accommodation.