Prediction And Decomposotion Of Indicators For Energy Saving And Emission Reduction

With the development of China's economy and the great progress that has been made in China's construction, our environment and resources have been destroyed seriously. Because of the deepening contradiction between environment and economy, more people make emphasis on the protection of our environment. During the eleventh five-year plan, under the leadership of Central Committee of Communist Party of China, the environmental quality of Liaoning Province has been improved obviously, until 2010, as compared to 2005, chemical oxygen demand emissions and the sulfur dioxide emissions of the whole province have declined by 15.95% and 14.6% respectively. Energy saving and emission reduction is again set as the binding targets in the twelfth five-year plan:energy consumption per GDP declines by 16%, carbon dioxide emissions intensity declines by 17%, total emissions of major pollutants declines by 8%-10%. How to make the job of energy saving and emission reduction go on smoothly and achieve the national mission with the other provinces have been the target of our research.Based on the domestic and international literatures, this article analyzes the theoretical basis of energy saving and emission reduction, system of energy saving and emission reduction, the relationship between environment and economy, and then use Environmental Kuznets Curve as the method to forecast Liaoning's target of energy saving and emission reduction, from the four aspects of energy consumption per GDP, waste water, exhaust gas and the solid waste comprehensive utilization rate to simulate the Environmental Kuznets Curve, research on the relationship between environmental indicators and economic indicators, using its trend to forecast the indicators of energy saving and emission reduction of energy consumption per GDP, waste water, exhaust gas and the solid waste comprehensive utilization rate of Liaoning in the twelfth five-year plan scientifically and reasonably.Next step, based on the analysis of the strength and weakness of different methods of weighting, we use combination weighting method to decompose the indicators we have mentioned before, from the four aspects of energy consumption per GDP, waste water, exhaust gas and the solid waste comprehensive utilization rate of 14 cities in Liaoning Province. At last, we propose policy suggestions for the job of energy saving and emission reduction in Liaoning province, so that we can lay a solid foundation for further improvement in energy saving and emission reduction.