Research On Convergence Of Regional Economic Growth Across Three Provinces In Northeast China

The empirical research on economic growth has always been an important issue that is concerned by economists. Furthermore, the convergence hypothesis of the neoclassical growth theory: there is a negative correlation relationship between GPDP growth rate and ratio of initial capital labor. Namely poor regions tend to grow faster than rich ones. That has been becoming a key economic issue in economic world. And economists have come to the conclusion that there are both convergence and divergence according to empirical study about various regions.First, this paper states the neoclassical growth theory and interprets the concept aboutσ-convergence,β-convergence and club-convergence and the interaction among of them. Second, according to Barro and Sala-I-Martin convergence inspection model this paper seeks to find whether the convergence forecasted by the neoclassical growth theory really exist across three provinces in northeast China (Liaoning Province, Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province) and the 36 cities of these provinces. These are based on the data of three provinces from 1990 to 2009. Last, based on the study above, the essay analyzes the correlated elements.The following conclusions are derived from this paper:1. It proved the existence ofσ-convergence in the period 1993-1996 and 1999-2004. And there is divergence in the period 1990-1993, 1996-1999and 2004-2009.2. The absoluteβ-convergence does not exist in the period 1990-2009. However, after introduced the rate of fixed asset investment, the net migration rate of population and the region virtual variable, this paper proved the existence ofβ-convergence from 1990 to 2009. But the conditionalβ-convergence means that each economies converges towards the steady state of its own. So even though the existence of the conditionalβ- convergence, the economic disparities do not disappear rapidly across economies.3. After the disparities across the three provinces are decomposed into the economic differences of intra area and the ones of inter area with the Theil index, this paper find the existence of the club-convergence across three provinces. This shows two significances. Firstly, the convergence does exist inside each club. Secondly, the divergence does exist across three clubs.4. Though the strategy that our country revitalize the old industrial base of Northeast evidently boosted the economic growth and narrowed the intra area gap of three provinces'own, it did not evidently narrow the inter area gap across three ones. And the migration of population had subtly made its own contribution to promoting the economic growth and decreasing the economic disparities across the three provinces.