Study On Convergence Of Economic Growth In The Three Provinces Of Northeast Area

Convergence theory of economic growth is the core of economic growth theory, the convergence mechanism of new-classical growth theory can be briefly summarized as follows: because capital marginal reward is reduced along with more capital use, economies with less initial capital per capita will have higher per capita growth rate of capital than economies with more initial capital per capita.(Assume that they have similar economic parameters). Then capital per capita and per capita output between them will tend to convergence. In this paper,we began from the introduction of new classical theory of economic growth, then introduced Solow - Swan economic growth model and basic implication of convergence. Then introduced absolutely - Beta restraining and condition - Beta restraining. First selected average per person GDP as the weight target, studied the region economic gap of the three provinces of Northeast area with the standard deviation, the coefficient of variation as measure methods. Experienced the nature purely statistical analysis to economic gap of various cities in the three provinces of Northeast area from the year 1990 to 2004. Analysis result demonstration: the standard deviation of average per person GDP of the three provinces of Northeast area rose unceasingly from 1990 to 2004, but the coefficient of variation of average per person GDP changes not in a big way, from time to time expands, from time to time reduces,therefore we cannot judge economic gap of the three provinces of Northeast area from these two standards. Carried on the statistical analysis to three provinces separately, results demonstration: the standard deviation of average per person GDP, presents the astringency very little. The regional economies gap assumes the tendency which expands unceasingly. But the coefficient of variation presents the astringency in many time intervals. The shape is very anomalous. Then based on basic MRV analysis frame, unified the actual situation of the three provincial capital city economic growth. Constructed new Beta - restraining anatomic model, beta - restraining confirmation result of 34 urban economic growth in Northeast area show that: this area urban economy grows does have absolutely - Beta restraining. Then introduce dummy variable, carried on the analysis to internal restraining condition of Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province. After the examination, discovered that the Heilongjiang Province interior various cities have presented the remarkable absolute convergence during 1990-2004,the Jilin Province various cities economic growth presents no absolute convergence during 1990-2004 years , the Liaoning Province have presented no obvious absolute convergence tendency during 1990-2004.At last, in the foundation of carrying on analysis to convergence three provincial capital city economic growth of the three provinces of Northeast area. Carried on the analysis to the factors affected the Northeast area urban economy growth astringent from the human capital level, the industrialization horizontal factor, the government expenditure level, the growth rate of population and so on . In several influencing factors, the human capital level, the industrialization horizontal factor have the obvious function to economic growth restraining of the three provinces of Northeast area, the government expenditure level, the growth rate of population have no function to economic growth restraining of the three provinces of Northeast area. It is this article policy suggestion at last,including raising the level of industrialization, speed up financial development, strengthening the building of the level of human capital.