Research On The Relationship Between China's Exports To The U.S.and U.S. Economic Growth

The United States is China's second large trading partner. In the year of 2010, the total trade between China and U.S. was amount to 380 billion U.S. dollars. The outbreak of the financial crisis, making the U.S. adopted protectionist policies, which affected China's export and economy adversely. The trade relationship between China and U.S. is very close. If the U.S. trade policy changed, it will directly affect China's export sector and China's economy. So it is very important to study the relations between Chinese exports and the United States' economy. In view of this actual situation, this paper chooses the China's exports to the U.S. and the U.S. gross domestic product as the objects of study.This article contains six chapters. In the first part of the paper, it describes the current situation of trade between China and U.S. Expounded on Chinese exports to the U.S. influence on the meaning of the U.S. economy, trying to prove that the United States adopt trade protection policy is unwise. The second part of the paper reviews and summarizes the theories and papers that analysis the relationship between exports and the economic growth. In the third part, summarizes the impact of imports mechanism of economic growth. In the forth part, it describes the problems of trade between China and U.S. Then chooses the China's exports to the U.S. and the U.S. gross domestic product as the objects of study, constructions of VAR Model and uses the Johansen cointegration test to find out the long-run equilibrium relationship between the China's exports to the U.S. and the U.S. gross domestic product. Due to the existence of cointegration relationship, this paper establishes a vector error correction model, and conducts of the Granger causality test to analyze the relevance of the two and the relationship between the interactions. Lastly, it reaches the conclusion:China's exports to the U.S. and the U.S. gross domestic product are promoted to each other. Besides, the protection of U.S. trade behavior is not irrational no matter from long-term or short-term, this behavior is not conducive to U.S. economic recovery.