The Research On Early-warning Of Risk For The Debt Of Expressway Project And Preventing

Due to the huge investment and the increasing development scale of our expressway, the investment of the state for expressway were limited, and"loan to build, charge to repay"become the main means to solve the problem concerning the development of expressway. Loaning to build promoted the development of expressway undertakings also brought large debt pressure for expressway.Because of the unreasonable scale, structure and repayment period of the expressway debt, and the influence of outside market environment and policy guiding, the revenues of tolls couldn't be ensured, and the expressway project couldn't repay due debts, so the debt risk turned up.Based on the the domestic and international research on the debt risk of charging to repay roads and risk early-warning, the paper studies from the angle of preventing the debt risk of expressway, analyzed detailedly the risk facts that influenced the debt of expressway construction project, and divided the debt risk of expressway construction project into debt scale risk, debt subject risk, debt management risk, detb finance risk and debt environment risk based on thinking through the formation mechanism of debt risk. The debt risk early-warning index system including five secondary indexes and seventeen third level indexes was established on the risk type, and the principal component analysis was used to choose and obtain the third level indexes including debt burden ratio, outstanding debt ratio, debt ratio, short-term debt ratio, debt management personnel quality, debt management system completeness, interest rate variation, traffic sensitive coefficient, price of transport ratio, speed ratio, charge standard deviation coefficient and so on. The debt risk early-warning model of expressway construction project based on the grey prediction theory was established after calculating the weight of various indexes by using the AHP, and the application of the model in the FD expressway debt risk early-warning practice proved that the it was reasonable and scientific. Finally, combining the actual situation of FD expressway debt risk early-warning, this paper proposed the debt risk prevention measures of expressway construction project for the expressway construction department reference.The debt risk early-warning index system and model of expressway project established in the paper was the beneficial attempt and it enriched the application category of early-warning theory. The debt risk prevention measures of expressway project was put forward to suggest the debt management of expressway project.