Early Warning And Control On Regional Government Debt Crisis

In recent years, local financial revenue was affected because of drop of state enterprises benefit, exemption of agricultural tax, and other policy-oriented factors. Together with other non-tax incomes were difficult to increase financial resources if taken out the cost, so many areas especially economically underdeveloped areas get into government's financial predicament inevitably.This study was put forward in this background, the major content of this study concluds debt risk identification, evaluation and crisis prevention of Jilin Provincial government. The main research and conclusions can be summarized as follows:1. Research on form mechanism of local geverment's debt risk. This article has difined the local geverment's debt and debt risk, carried on the classification to geverment's debt risk, the studied the geverment's debt risk formation mechanism systemly, and laid the basis for local geverment's debt risk early warning research of Jilin Province.2. Compare research on domestic and foreign management of local geverment's debt. Our country's debt risk management processes backwardness level in the world, in profits from the overseas advanced experience in the foundation, the overall analysis Jilin provincial government debt present situation, in the three countries Local authority debt has carried on the comparative analysis to US and Japan in the foundation, proposed the overseas advanced debt management method and the experience to the Jilin provincial government debt risk management enlightenment.3. Research on relatedness between Jilin provincial government debt and regional economies development. This paper analyzed the necessity which from the regional economies growth angle the Local authority offers loans, has introduced the debt and the economic development relations economic; In view of the Jilin Province socio-economic development and the government debt situation, have analyzed the Jilin provincial government debt, the negative effect, finally discussed the Jilin provincial government debt risk and the financial risk interactive conductivity.4. Construction of Jilin provincial government debt risk early warning indicator system. This article in analyzes in the Local authority debt risk early warning indicator system's rationale, the system has studied present situations thoroughly and so on Jilin Province society, economy, debt, has constructed the Jilin provincial government debt risk assessment indicator system. This indicator system including mainly by the social economy subsystem , the debt characteristic subsystem and the credit capacity subsystem, and unifies Jilin Province's actual situation, (marginal value sector) divides into three sectors various targets' risk sector: The peaceful closed region, the risk early warning territory and the crisis erupt the territory, and has carried on the determination to various targets in various risks sector's territory value, lays the foundation for the Jilin provincial government debt risk rank's recognition and the appraisal.5. Extension early warning research on Jilin provincial government debt risk.This paper introduced the single target risk early warning extension model and has constructed the multi objective extension model which the government debt risk crisis forewarns. Using the analytic hierarchy process determined that various targets the weight and has conducted the empirical study by Jilin Province 2001-2006 year government debt risk as the object of study. The findings indicated: 2001-2006 year Jilin provincial government debt risk stepped over the peaceful closed region to enter the risk early warning territory. And, 2001 risk value was biggest, has achieved the risk early warning territory intermediate region, other years just made great strides forward the risk early warning territory, but compared depending on your recent well-being closed region.6. Debt risk assessment system optimization and risk forecast research of Jilin provincial based on grey theory. Used the gray connection theory to determine various targets to the Jilin provincial government debt risk's influence, the conclusion indicated: Is bigger than 0.5 six targets with the Jilin provincial government debt risk incidence coefficient to be possible to take the Jilin provincial government debt risk early warning the key monitor target, but other eight targets may take the auxiliary target. Constructed gray dynamic GM (1,1) the model to conduct the forecast research to Jilin Province 2008-2010 year government debt risk, the conclusion had indicated: Jilin Province 2008, 2009 and in 2010 the government debt risk falls on the risk early warning territory, and erupts the territory migration gradually to the crisis, must take the effective action to carry on the control, avoids debt crisis's appearance.7. Research on crisis prevention of government debt. In view of the fact that the Jilin provincial government debt risk already appeared at present, and has the possibility to transform as the debt crisis, this article goal which guards against through the construction debt crisis, analyzes and contains the analysis to seek the condition which through the radiation the crisis guards against, aims at the national policy separately the influence, to offered loans with development relations aspects and so on cognition deviation has carried on the extension analysis, produced the corresponding government debt crisis to guard against the strategy separately.