Research On Early Warning And Prevention Of Local Government Debt Risks In Guizhou Province

The risk,prevention and control of local government's risk has always been a hot social topics,and has been paid special attention by the central government in recent years.A certain scale of local government debt can effectively promote the local economic and social development,but the debt that the local government can't pay back is bound to cause the financial risk of the insolvency,and then touch the regional,systemic financial risk the bottom line,and then influence the national economic development and social stability.Guizhou,as less-developed western economy,ethnic minority population accounts for a high multi-ethnic populated provinces,in recent years in the strategy of “scientific development,backwardness catch up” under the guidance,all levels of local governments to increase investment,has built up a huge government debt,to become China's local government debt risk outbreak of high-risk area.Comprehensive and systematic analysis of the Guizhou province local government debt risk conduction mechanism and formation mechanism,and then build the Guizhou province local government debt risk early warning index system and early-warning model,timely analysis of local government debt risk in Guizhou is in the can control range,has very important significance in theory and in fact.In Guizhou province has local government debt risk and the county government debt risks as the research object,mainly adopts literature research,field investigation,case analysis,combining qualitative and quantitative analysis method,the integrated use of economics,statistics,management and other related theory,the local government debt risk early warning and protection in Guizhou were studied deeply.The main results are as follows:Firstly,screen the local government debt risk early warning index system in Guizhou province.In fully absorb domestic and foreign relevant government debt risk early warning method,on the basis of combining the practical conditions of Guizhou province,according to the local financial and economic environment,the condition of local government debt and local government debt paying ability of three principles,using literature study screened 9 Guizhou local government debt risk early warning indicators.Secondly,build the local government debt risk early warning model in Guizhou province.Government debt risk early warning method at home and abroad for reference,the optimization of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,the construction of Guizhou local government debt risk early warning model.Thirdly,verify the local government debt risk early warning index system and the reliability of the early warning model through the case analysis in Guizhou province.According to the sample representativeness and generality principle,taking the election of Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture in Southeast Guizhou as an example,through the actual data and the model test,the debt risk early warning model construction is verified by the reliability.Finally,puts forward the countermeasures against local government debt risk in Guizhou.In view of the actual situation of local government in Guizhou,using the theory of fiscal decentralization,risk measurement theory and the theory of government risk theory,specific countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for preventing the risks of local government debt in Guizhou.