The International Trade And The Upgrading Of The Industrial Structure:based On The Empirical Study Of Input-Output Model

As the two hot issues in economic field, upgrading of the industrial structure and international trade have always been the important research direction. In china, the current situation in these two areas are as follows: In the upgrading of the industrial structure part, china promulgated"The Twelfth Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of The People's Republic of China"in the first half of 2011,which explicitly put forward to Promote new technology and new industry depth fusion, and then put the strategic new industry into the future pillar industry for economic development; In the international trade part, according to The National Bureau of Statistics, the import and export of china in 2010 value about $ 2.97276 trillion, up 34.7% over the previous year. Export is 1.57793 trillion, up 31.3%; Import is 1.39483 trillion, up 38.7%. The trade surplus is 183.1 billion, reduced by 6.4%.Though the trade surplus has been reduced, the amount is still large, and that is not conducive to the healthy development of national economy.In this paper, by studying the mechanism of international trade to upgrading the industrial structure, and using the spiral development model, this paper explains the promotion role of international trade. Then the paper draws on the 2002 and 2007 input-output tables for the role of an empirical test. Based on this, it gets a conclusion of the future direction of upgrading of the industrial structure.In international trade, this article will view the contribution rate of import and export to added value (hereinafter referred to as "import contribution rate" and "export contribution rate") as the judgments to status of development of foreign trade. The import and export contribution rate are calculated with reference Zhenyu Wu and Lisheng Shen and Yan Zhang and Ligao Chen, and after the corresponding evolution.Through the calculation, the paper gets all industries input and output contribution rate in 2002 and 2007 input-output tables,and the average input and output contribution rate. As it is known that the greater the import contribution rate is, the more possibly the industry tends to be an import-oriented industry; the greater the export contribution rate is, the more possibly the industry tends to be an export-ooriented industry. Comparing the industry's import and export contribution rate with the average import and export contribution rate, divide all the industries into four types,that are export-related industry, import-related industry, import and export-related industry and import and export unrelated industry. With the different intermediate inputs in the production process, respectively, the paper also divides the importing industry and exporting industry into the imported capital and technology-related industries, the imported intermediate goods-related industries, the imported natural resource-related industries and the exported capital and technology-related industries, the exported intermediate goods-related industries, the exported natural resource-related industries.After industry classification, it will consider how upgrading of the industrial structure can contact with foreign trade, and the spiral development model is the key link between the two. The spirall development model breaks down the process of upgrading the industrial structure into four stages, They are named closed stage,import dependency stage,comprehensive production stage and professional production stage.Thereunto, the four-stage classification mainly based on import and export contribution rate.Closed stage of the relatively small import and export contribution rate; Import dependency stage of the small export contribution rate but large import contribution rate; Comprehensive production stage of the relatively large import and export contribution rate;Professional production stage of the large export contribution rate but small import contribution rate. According to the Spiral development model, the process of Upgrading of the Industrial Structure is a process that is from closed stage to Professional production stage. Based on the Industry classification above, it can simply classify the import and export unrelated industry as closed stage, the import-related industry as import dependency stage, the import and export-related industry as comprehensive production stage, the export-related industry as professional production stage. As a result, the paper can clearly know which stage the industry in the input-output table is, and realize the upgrading of industrial structure.At last, the paper gives the results as follow. That is, in china, the main industry in closed stage is agriculture, mining industry and social service industry. In import dependency stage is mineral processing industry and science and technology service industry; In comprehensive production stage is technology intensive industries, In professional production stage is Labor intensive industry.