| In recent years, a lot of construction land is needed land to serve the economicdevelopment because of the rapid development of our country's economy, and there isnot the forecasting method for construction land that have been recognized in theworld. Therefore, how to determine the scale of construction land reasonably isconcerned by many experts and scholars.This paper takes Helong city for example, through analyzing the GDP, the totalpopulation and the total quantity of the construction land of Helong city for ten yearsrunning, and according to the opportunity that Helong city's economic development isfacing, We sketch three different development pattern based on different starting forthe future development of Helong city. On the basis of previous studies, we use Timeseries model to forecast the construction land of Helong city in 2020.The major research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The model in this paper considers the influence of the area population, GDPand the total construction land, the development status in the area around the Helongcity are also included in the prediction model, thus, make the model of constructionland more reasonable.(2) Through the analysis to the predictive value in 2020 of construction landunder the three models, we found that the Moderately intensive mode is the mostsuitable one, this model uses Hunchun city and Longjing city as the reference, thepredictive value of construction land is closest to the Planning target, higher than theplanned target of the 263.68 hectares. This shows that the practicality and feasibilityin Moderately intensive mode are the best for Helong city.From the prediction results, we can find that the total amount of constructionland for is increasing in order to meet the needs of economic development. Thisprediction results not only can provide evidence for the future revision work, but alsocan help managers to manage construction land much better, and improve Efficiencyof construction land. |
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