Study On The Employment Effect Of International Trade In China's Central Region

With the depth of reform and opening up, China has gradually accelerated to its trade liberalization process and witnesses the gradual expansion of total employment, rapid economic growth and other significant improvements of social indicators, which create a "China miracle." Meanwhile the growth rate of trade of the central region is higher than the region's economic growth rate and also higher than the national growth rate of trade, and so the central region is one of the fastest growing regions in China. While the central region occupied about 28% of the population in China in which agricultural population is huge. However, in face of China's urban-rural issues of dual economic structure, employment is particularly prominent. Therefore in this context, the study on the effects of employment of foreign trade in central region, especially the role of the trade structure in transfer process of labors, has important practical significance. It is worth studying that can the central and western regions get help from the eastern industrial transfer to develop its foreign trade, gradually bring the optimization of the industrial structure, allocate the labor resources efficiently and promote economic takeoff. However the article defines the structure of foreign trade of primary products (mainly agricultural products) trade and manufactured goods trade.In this paper, firstly I make a general description of the foreign trade and employment status of the central region and summarize the major problems of trade and employment; then I analysis the impact mechanism of the foreign trade on the employment, and explain the relationship between the foreign trade and the employment, and bring forward how the unique structure of trade in central region affects employment. In the empirical analysis, with the time series data of the year from 1990 to 2009 of Anhui province, I use cointegration analysis, error correction model and Granger causality test methods to analysis the impact of foreign trade products structure of the central region on the scale of employment, and the employment structure. The results show that both import and export of primary products in central region will reduce employment opportunities in this area, which due to the crowding-out effect; industrial products export trade,which increase the employment opportunities 3 times than the agricultural's, is the main factor to increase regional employment the development of export trade and economic growth is conducive to improve employment opportunities; economic growth optimizes the labor and employment structure, which leads the employment effects of agriculture from positive to negative and the employment effects of industry to become higher; to speed up the development of agricultural trade, the central region must increase scientific and technological input in agriculture; the increase of employment level in central region benefits economic growth and accumulation; long-term employment stability is based on the performance of industrial development in central region.In the end, this paper puts forward the following suggestions in external trade development and increase of employment rate in center region in China. In the first place, we might optimize the structure of agricultural trade, transform the export structure and expand high-quality agricultural imports; furthermore, government in center region should support greatly in industry transfer and accelerate the development of manufactured goods trade; In addition, we could increase the technological content of export products and selectively import manufactured goods; moreover, we may optimize trade structure in center region and promote the efficient allocation of labor resources; ultimately, cooperation within and between regions should be encouraged to build a harmonious development of export-oriented economy mode.