The Estate Project Decision-Making Model Based On The Policy Risk Estimation

With the steady development of China's market economy, real estate investment activities are increasingly active, and the situation of overheating has emerged, so the macro-control on the real estate market has strengthened. In this policy context, how to estimate, analyze the risks and accuratly make the real estate investment decision, is the problem urgently needed to solve that real estate investors face. We has made a comprehensive analysis of policy risk factors based on the pratical problem in the real estate investment, and has tried to find a more scientific decision-making approach to reduce the level of risk of the investment decision-making.This thesis first introduces the concepts and theories of the real estate investment decisions, and describes its principles, contents, processes. Secondly, through the comprehensive analysis of the policy risk factors of real estate investment decision-making, we build a policy risk assessment system, and analyse the indicators in the index system,make the policy risk probability by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and Euclid approach degree theory.Then, in the real estate project development process, the choice of the investment program is one of the important decision-making problems. Real estate investors in the decision-making, they need to predict the future real estate market,estimate a variety of technical and economic data about the impact of the economic benefits, such as the rate of return, payback period and so on. However, such predictons and estimates are often made subjectively,which can not accurately reflect the objective situation, and therefore it may result in wrong decisions. We proposes an improved Bayesian risk investment decision-making method which can compensate for this defect. It increases the amount of information through market research, and amends the prior probability, so as to achieve the goal of reducing decision risk.Finally, by using the above model, we conduct a systematic analysis and research of the choice of the Xinhai park project's investment decision-making in a city. The empirical analysis shows that the Bayesian approach can be effective in the choice of the real estate project investment program, and able to combine the estimation subjectively and objectively and provides an effective means of risk prediction, so as to reduce the risks in the early stage of projects development. At the same time, it pointes out that the Bayesian risk decision-making method have limitations, and with the real estate investment market becoming mature and the use of new theories and technologies, the method will be improved and developed, and its practicality would also be greatly improved.