Estimating The Rebound Effect In China's Industrial Energy Consumption And Emprical Analysis Of Its Impact On The Elasticity Of Substitution

During the past 30 years of reform and opening to the outside world, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements in the urbanization development, however, in the process of industrialization, high energy intensity consumption has accumulated a lot of problems. China is a country with a large population, although the total energy rich, but the ownership of per capita is low, at the same time,backward in energy technology, energy uneven distribution made serious problems, the energy regional differences have affected coordinated and balanced development of energy industry. Since 1993, our energy structure has changed, from net exporter to a net importer, coal, electric power, oil and natural gas energy are all in short supply, especially, the high dependence on foreign oil become a serious problem threating China's energy security.In this century,the grabbing for energy has resulted in the changing of international environment and political geopolitics.in turbulent international environment, Western countries were directed at China, publicizing China's energy threat Theory. The high energy dependence on foreign is not only threating the national energy security, but also seriously affecting the economy smoothly running. Coal is the main consumption of energy, a lot of pollutant emissions caused deterioration of the environment and a serious threat of public health, the coordinated development of economic.enery and environment is very important.China's complex energy security environment on energy put forward higher request on policy formulation, before establishing energy policy, you need to consider the influent relationship between input elements. The research of energy, capital, labor's elasticity of substitution can provide very good basis for energy policy formulation. However, the effect of implementation can be difficult to predict.during the process,the relationship of input elements may different as the changing of technology and macro economic environment.The Rebound Effect is a key factor affecting this relationship.Which Points out that.as the technology progress improving the energy efficiency,the development of the economy may do more in enhancing energy consumption.The Rebound Effect affects the implementation effect, based on the above considerations, this paper will discuss the Rebound Effect and substitutional relationship together,This article will first analysis the Rebound Effect form the technology progress of industrial department.and, in doing so, as a exterior factor measured of energy substitution.and then analyze the alternative relations of input elements and the influence from the Rebound Effect to the relationship of energy substitution. Hope to provide more reference for energy policy formulation.This paper is divided into four parts:the first chapter is the introduction section, including the introduction of the research background, significance, thoughts and methods, and also the content of this paper and organization structure; In second chapter we estimate the rebound effect of China's industrial sector energy;Following Chapter 2, in chapter3 we introduce the rebound effect into the study of alternative relations as a variable parameter, to analyze the effects of rebound on Chinese industrial department capital and the substitution elasticity between labor and energy;The last chapter is a conclusion based on the analysis of above chapters, and will present some corresponding policy implications.There are two innovations in this paper:1. Most of the studies on energy rebound effect are generally limited to the macroscopic level. Guo Juan (2010) has found this problem and has studied the energy rebound effect of the industrial department, but just used the national annual data. Considering the regional differences and former models, this paper analysis the energy rebound effect of industrial department, based on the data of 29 provinces of China within 1992-2008.2, The energy rebound effect has been introduced into the study of alternative relations for the first time as a variable parameter, and then analyze the substitution relation among the input factors of the industrial department, the effect of the implement on energy policy has also been studied, hoping to provide a more comprehensive reference for establishment of our energy policy.This research shows that:1. The output elasticity of capital and energy are positive, the output elasticity of labor is negative, and capital output elasticity is higher than the energy output elasticity. This means that the capital input dominate the growth of the economy, and the scarce degree of energy is lower than capital, i.e. the using efficiency of energy in industrial is lower than the efficiency of capital.2. The capital and energy represent a relationship of substitution, while capital and labor represent complementation. The substitution of energy can be realized by increasing the input of capital and labor has little contribution to the substitution of energy.3. The progress of technology leading to the effect of energy rebound, meanwhile the energy rebound effect has strong regional differences, lower in the middle and east regions and very high in west region.there is more benefit for the middle and east within the progress of technology, while it is not as much efficient as expect for the west. So it proposed a question on the idea of energy saving that only through the improvement of technology, causing us to rethinking the method of energy saving.4. This is little influence of the rebound effect on the complementation between capital and labor, but it obviously weakens the substitution of capital on energy. These further shows that the substitution energy of industrial needs the input of capital, but capital investment only on updating technology can no longer restrain the increasing of energy consumption for Chinese industrial departments.Chinese economy is growing rapidly and energy consumption can be control reasonable, but it is impossible to reduce the energy consumption in a short time. So the author thinks that improve the global understanding of economy and energy and clear the investment of the capital could lead a reasonable increasing of the energy consumption. Only in this way can we extremely reduce environmental costs of energy on the production and use of energy, in the premise ensure of the state energy security, meanwhile protecting public health, realizing the sustainable development of economy, energy and environment.