Analysis On The Empirically Research And Influence Factors Of Energy Rebound Effect In Guangdong Province

Due to insufficient mineral resources, energy production in Guangdong has been restricted. But with high energy consumption, Guangdong has became one of the largest energy consumption area. Guangdong had continuously published a series of low carbon policy measures and made adjustments to the mechanisms accordingly during the eleventh and the twelfth five-year. One crucial policy of them was to vigorously promote technological progress in order to achieve the goal of energy saving, but the presence of energy rebound effect will affect the validity of the implementation of energy conservation policy. This dissertation aims to explore the size and influence factors of rebound effect, and discuss the direction of the development of energy-saving in Guangdong.This dissertation firstly applies total factor productivity instead of generalized technical progress to measure the size of energy rebound effect in Guangdong over the years from 1985 to 2013, the results show that energy rebound effect always exits in Guangdong in the long term, and the size of energy rebound effect slightly higher than the national average size; second, analyze the influence factors of energy rebound effect theoretically, then carry out the empirical study through VEC(Vector Error Correction Model) the result shows that the scale of export has a positive impact on energy rebound effect, and the impact of energy price and industrial structure are opposite. According to theoretical and empirical analysis in this paper, the government can’t ignore the impact of energy rebound effect and should focus on achieve better policy effect by the ways of raising the energy price, optimizing the industrial structure and adjusting export structure.