| In the past few years, real estate is definitely the hottest topic. Not only because it takes an important role in national economy, or it relate with people’ daily life mostly, but because the stunning rise in housing price. As the country’s pillar industry, the importance of real estate goes without saying that the sharp rise in the price must have its own internal reasons, but we should realize that if the rate of increase goes beyond the reasonable level, that will eventually lead to the real estate bubble burst and bring a range of serious harm.Whether the bubble really exists in our real estate market, if there isn’t how to prove that, and if there is, to what extent, what are the reasons and what measures should be taken to avoid its further expansion. Based on the interest of these problems of practical significance, the author selected this title and tried to find out the causes, harm of this phenomenon. And through in-depth analysis and comparative analysis of the issue to be explored, the author proposed some feasible proposals. This article is divided into six parts:Chapter Ⅰ:Introduction. This chapter explained the research background and significance, literature review and comment both home and abroad. And also listed the frameworks and methods of this study, illustrates the innovation of this paper as well as its shortcomings.Chapter Ⅱ:Overview of the real estate bubble. This chapter explained the definition of a general sense of the bubble and the real estate bubble. And describes the specific choice of measure indicators of the real estate bubble indicators measure, classify of this article.Chapter Ⅲ:The world real estate bubble. This chapter departure from the real estate bubble in Japan and Thailand, described the background of their real estate bubble, process, analyzed the causes and hazards of the burst of its bubble, and eventually put forward some suggestions for China’s current real estate bubble control.Chapter Ⅳ:Measure of China’s real estate bubble. This chapter describes a specific way to measure China’s real estate bubble indicators, the causes and hazards of the real estate bubble. This chapter starts with the systematically introduces the indicators used in the measure of Chinese real estate bubble degree. Through carefully screening of predictors, indicating and other indicators of real estate operating conditions, the measure results show that bubble do exist in our current real estate market, however the degree is still in a controllable range. Then the author analyzed the reasons of Chinese real estate bubble from the following aspects:land factors, policy factors, the process of urbanization, cost factors and exchange rate factors. Through empirical test, we found out that land prices and the urbanization rate are the most important two factors. Finally, from the following aspects:funds escape from the real economy, real estate bubble takes up the daily consumption of residents, intensify social contradictions may be caused, bank failures may lead to large-scale financial crisis and the real estate bubble burst, the real economy is difficult to short-term recovery, the formation of the vacuum period of economic development and so on, the author analyzed the hazards when the real estate bubble start to form and burst.Chapter V:Conclusions and recommendations. This chapter summarizes the main points and conclusions of this paper, and facing the facts of the real estate bubble in China, the author proposed to increase supply and control the irrational demand to control by the real estate bubble. |
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