A Study On The Influence Comprehensive Effect Rate Of Trade Has On Trade Conflicts In China

With the theme of reform and opening up, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly in the past 30years, especially in the export aspect. Both size and growth rate of export have emerged with an increasing trend, and China is playing a more and more important role in the world trade. But as long as the expansion of export, the trade conflicts between China and trade partners are rising. While the trade conflicts would affect the healthy development of China's economy, controlling the quantity of trade conflicts is quite necessary. There are many ways to control trade conflicts but this paper studied the influence that comprehensive effect rate of export had on trade conflicts in China and summarized corresponding advices according to the conclusions.First this paper took the proportion that a country's export in world export and the proportion that the incremental of its export in world export incremental as the measures of comprehensive effect rate of export. And then it defined trade conflicts as both anti-dumping and countervailing. Next this article did theoretical analysis about the relationship between the two targets. Second this paper took China's export as an example. It described the condition that the comprehensive effect rate of export and trade conflicts in China. Then it took ADF test, Johansen test and ECM model to analyze the empirical relationship between comprehensive effect rate of export and trade conflicts in China based on the data from 1979 to 2009 and also did summaries on the empirical results. The results showed that with the exaltation of the proportion China's export takes in world export, the numbers of trade conflicts aimed to China would increase in long term. But in short-term, trade conflicts would enlarge as the proportion that the incremental of China's export in world export incremental expands. At last, this paper put forward some proposals based on the results. These suggestions were given from short-term and long-term which short-term recommendations should focus on controlling export growth rate reasonably and adjusting quickly the indirect factors that would reduce trade conflicts. The long-term recommendations should be mainly on taking a reasonable growth rate on the scale of China's export and adjusting the products structure in China's exports.China is facing a new round of economic development cycle and if the scale and speed of foreign trade development were controlled appropriately as well as China's trade structure were adjusted wisely, China's foreign trade in the new period would bound to a healthier and more stable situation.