The Sensitivity Analysis Of Import And Export Trade Along With The Change Of The Exchange Rate Under The Difference Of Trade Structure

The European countries began using a uniform currency-the Euro in2000, andsuffered the effects of the subprime crisis from America, and then the European debtcrisis erupted in2010. During this period, The RMB exchange rate against the eurofluctuates frequently, and fluctuation range is also very large especially in recentyears. Exchange rate fluctuations will inevitably affect the import and export trade asrapid development of the China-Europe trade, and increase risk of making importand export traders, and also have a big impact on a country’s foreign exchangereserves. Even for countries with the same currency, impact on the import andexport trade caused by exchange rate fluctuations will varies according to differentcountries. This is because each country discrepancies between commodity’sstructure of trade with other countries so that the sensitivity of trade to exchangerate changes are not the same. Germany, and France and Italy after the uniform useof the euro, their euro exchange rate against the RMB is the same, and theircommodity structure of trade is different. This provides a probability analysis ofempirical analysis to study the import and export trade structure differencesensitivity as exchange rate fluctuation. Sharp fluctuations of the exchange ratesprovide a ideal window of comparative study.Based on the import and export trade data and exchange rate of11-yearsfrom the January2001to December2011,of China-German、China-French andChina-Italian respectively, with the use of elastic analysis using Eviews software todraw three bilateral trade import and export exchange rate flexibility coefficient. The sensitivity of the exchange rate of the export trade of the three bilateral trade,Germany, France and Italy is of little difference, and they are0.647798,0.689762and0.913363, and they are in line with the traditional theory. But there is a relativelylarge difference between the import exchange rate flexibility coefficient: imports ofGermany is the most sensitive to changes in exchange rates, the elastic coefficient is1.395505; followed by Italy:0.780975, finally France:-0.108142. Finally, through theanalysis of the structural differences between the various trade goods, to identify theimport exchange rate flexibility differences, we found that the processing tradecharacteristics Obviously HS16categories of goods, is of in a small proportion of theChina-French imports, just one in third; but the share accounted for half in theChina-German and China-Italian trade. The characteristics of the processing trade isthat imports for exports of intermediate goods, exports increased to bring increasedimports, which resulted in the difference between China-French、China-German andChina-Italy. Italy trade, the proportion of the textile trade far more than theChina-German trade, this causes the difference of the modulus of elasticity of theimport trade between China-Germany and China-Italy.The paper provides some policy recommendations in the final. First: in the caseof trade structural differences, the import and export sensitivity to changes inexchange rates is not the same, so our government should save the stability of theforeign trade and exchange rate policies to reduce the risks of uncertainty of theimport and export enterprises. Second: cultivate core talent, optimize trade structure,the implementation of science and technology trade, quality and marketdiversification strategy, but also to promote the transformation and upgrading ofprocessing trade to take specific measures of different countries. Third: to maintainexport, emphasis on imports. Make full use of the advantages of our labor resourcesin the central and western china, increasing the size of imports goods includingenergy and raw material, advanced technology and equipment, key parts, andconsumer goods.