An Empirical Study On Economic Impact Of Trade On Shanghai Import

For a long time, people always focus their attention on export when evaluating foreign trade boost economy. They believe only export or trade surplus play an active role in economy growth and import will offset the effect. Actually, both of them are dispensable and are the ways for any country to maximize their return by international exchange. For this situation, the essay aimed for analyzing the import trade's impact on Shanghai economic growth based on Shanghai's relevant economic data from 1990 to 2009.This essay bases on empirical research methods and theoretical analysis and practical testing combined methods to solve the problem. It consists of three parts. PartⅠpresents on outline, in-cluding the background and meaning of the research, literature review, logical framework, innova-tion point and deficiency. After that, three theoretical assumptions which could influence econom-ic growth were set up. Firstly, import stimulates demand. Secondly, import increases supply. Last-ly, import promotes technological progress. PartⅡis empirical analysis and model examine. When we analyzes current situation of Shanghai import trade, it includes macroeconomic performance, current situation of imported goods, import trade enterprises and import trade and economic per-formance indicators of imports. The three models are as follows:The first combines Macroeconomic Theory and Zhang(2003)'s method, and then establishes a simultaneous equations model including investment equation, Consumption equation, import equation and national income identity from the perspective of aggregate demand. The second bases on Marwah&Tavakoli (2004) model which regards import as an independent factor into factor of production; meanwhile, ignores the technological progress then make an empirical Anal-ysis by means of a Neoclassical growth model. The last uses Coe&Helpman(1995) model, in-spects the relationship between technology spillovers of import trade channels and domestic out-put per capita. That is from an indirect benefits perspective to study spillover effects on economic growth. The empirical results show that:In a short time, which caused by imports of consumption, investment, export growth will lead to Shanghai economic growth; In a long time, Shanghai im-ports broke through the bottleneck of supply factors also promote Shanghai economic growth. In addition, the technology spillover effects from imports also contributed to economic growth, but Shanghai's own technology absorptive capacity is not significantly.PartⅢis an conclusion and proposes policies of maximizing the trade, imports a positive impact on economic growth as well as reducing the potential negative impacts.