An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Import Trade On China’s Economic Growth

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, China’s foreign trade has also made remarkable achievements and become the world’s largest exporter, but the long-term trade surplus lead to a serious imbalance in China’s foreign trade structure, many problems and challenges to the economic development of China. During the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, the State Council promulgated the "decision on strengthening the import trade guidelines to promote the balanced development of the foreign trade structure", the main content is to further expand imports, China’s foreign trade structure adjustment, play the positive impact of import on China’s economic growth. Therefore, study on the smooth implementation of the import trade promotes economic growth can contribute to the policy from the perspective of evidence.This paper is divided into four parts:The first part is introduction, mainly introducing the research background and about the impact of import trade on economic growth research at home and abroad were reviewed.The second part mainly discusses theoretically the mechanism of action of import trade on China’s economic growth, first, breakthrough bottleneck factor supply transmission mechanism:on the one hand, import trade through the bottleneck of domestic imports relatively scarce industrial product such as the core resources, primary production data to break the factor supply constraints, promote economic growth. The second is through imports of machinery and equipment and advanced technology, giving full play to the advantages of technology spillover effect to enhance the location of the importer, attract foreign direct investment to promote economic growth. Second, promote technological progress transmission mechanism: first of all, advanced equipment and advanced techno logy import can bring technology innovation, not only can quickly improve the technology level of importer, can effectively save the domestic research and development time and cost. Second, the importer will be high-tech products and capital goods into production, will significantly improve the level of the country’s production function technology, enhance the international competitiveness of their products. At the same time, consumer goods import will have a competition effect, encourage domestic enterprise technology innovation, improvement of production, improve production efficiency, thereby stimulating the economy as a whole. Three, industrial structure upgrade transmission mechanism:import trade through factor supply effect and technology spillover effect, optimizing the structure of domestic factors and demand structure, promote the domestic industrial structure adjustment, eventually to promote economic growth.The third part is the focus in the study of this paper, which uses the empirical analysis method to study the effect of import trade on China’s economic growth. Import goods in scale, using the least squares method to establish regression model, the empirical results show that the total imports and has positive correlation relationship between economic growth. Import commodity structure, and makes an empirical analysis is mainly from the following three aspects:first, breakthroughs factor supply bottlenecks, first of all, using the input-output analysis combined with our country in 2007,2010 and 2012 input-output table, the analysis of the bottleneck industry of national economy in our country, and then combined with China’s import trade data, found that imports can alleviate the domestic factor supply tension, thereby promote economic growth; Second, promote technological progress effect, this paper use the empirical data from 1985 to 2014 of China’s total factor productivity measure, it is concluded that the TFP data, and then import goods and the return of the total factor productivity model is set up, mainly analyzes the primary products and manufactured goods import differentiation role for promoting the technical progress, the results show that manufactured goods imported to the total factor productivity has strong impetus; Third, the upgrading of industrial structure effect, using China economic data from 1985 to 2014, using money in semi-log model, builds the structure of imports and regression model of industrial structure in China, the empirical results show that the primary products imports has driven to the first and the second industry, manufactured goods import has promoting effect to the third industry.The fourth part mainly combines with the above results of the empirical analysis, putting forward policy suggestions on strengthening the import trade promote economic growth.