Analysis Of Impact Of Foreign Tarde On Employment Based On China's Manufacturing Industry Panel Data

In recent decades, the economic relation among countries (regions) in the world has been increasingly closed, international trade have played a more important role in the economic development of a country (region). International trade can be seen as not only the international flow or exchange of goods and services, but also be seen as international flow of factors of productions included in goods and services. Labor is one of the important factors of production, so a country's labor market will be affected by the development of its foreign trade. Since the reform and opening, the link between China and the world become more closely, the development's speed of foreign trade is high, especially when entering into WTO in2001, China's foreign trade is entering into a phase of acceleration of growth. The volume of trade amounted to$2.9trillion in2010, account for50%of GDP, the trade of industrial products accounted over80%of total trade, so the trade of China's manufacturing has played an important role in economic development. China's manufacturing has always been the main sector to absorb labor force, the employment in China's manufacturing accounted for more than28%of total employment in average from1999to2008, it can be said that changes in the level of manufacturing employment bound to affect overall level of employment in China. So, how much impact to domestic employment caused by the development of China's manufacturing trade? How much difference in the impact of trade on employment among the different types of manufacturing industry? This paper attempts to answer these questions.There are five chapters. Chapter1relates to the proposition of the background and meaning of this paper, shows the relevant research situation now home and abroad, locating the perspective of this study, generalizing the method, and fixing the framework, which is the basis of the following analysis. Chapter2elaborates the transmission mechanism in impact of trade on employment in three aspects:factor content of trade and demand for labor, trade and labor-demand elasticity, the way of impact of trade on employment, and make focus on mechanism in effect of trade structure on impact of trade on the employment, these provides a theoretical support for the following empirical analysis. Chapter3uses data and diagrams to analyze the characteristics and internal relations between trade and employment of different factor ratio properties in manufacturing industries. Chapter4is the empirical part of this article, discussed from three aspects:First, based on the panel data between the year1999to2008, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth significantly, import trade has a negative impact on employment growth, the one term lagged of employment has a positive impact on current employment significantly, indicating that the pulling effect of trade on employment can not be fully manifested in the current period. Second, on the base of factor ratio properties, the manufacturing industries has been divided into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth in three industries, the import of technology-intensive industries also has a positive impact on employment growth, in current, the export of labor-intensive industry has brought the biggest pull impact on employment, while the technology-intensive industry has the largest lagged effect of employment, indicating that technology-intensive industry has brought long-term pull effect on employment. Third, by building trade competitiveness indicators, manufacturing industry is reclassified as strong competitiveness industry, weak competitiveness industry, competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry, the empirical results shows:export trade boost the employment growth in three industries, in current, the export of strong competitiveness industry has biggest pull effect on employment, while the competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry has the largest lagged effect of employment, indicating that competitiveness transforming from weak to strong industry's trade has brought long-term pull effect on employment. Finally, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations.