Bayesian Method In The Application Research Of Industrial Structure

The industrial structure and economic growth is closely. The industrial structure is the basis of economic growth and the main factor to promote economic growth. The changes of economic growth permit the change of industrial structure. Since the reform and open policy, our country economy changes swiftly, the industrial structure is changed accordingly. The industrial structure realized change from weak to strong and from less to much. In recent years, the economic development of our country has been more and more restricted by industrial structural conflict, economic development of structural contradiction have become increasingly prominent. In the present stage of our country industry structure, still exist many problems. Therefore, the industrial structure of our country still needs adjustment. Researching the industrial structure of our country is important meaning to increase the economy and enhance live level of people. Firstly, this text reviews inside and outside development of industrial structure and the production function theories, makes use of the threshold regression theories and the Box-Cox transform theories to deduce the threshold regression model of the growth rate,the threshold regression model of the C-D production function and Box-Cox transform model of the CES production function, and makes use of Bayesian method to estimate the parameter of the threshold regression model of the growth rate,the threshold regression model of the C-D production function and Box-Cox transform model of the CES production function.Secondly, it adopts the serial economic data of our country's GDP, first industry, the second industry and the third industry production since 1978-2008 year, from the point of view of fixing quantify and nature, studies the different development characteristic of our country industries and the economy growth in the different stage, establishes the threshold regression model of the growth rate,the threshold regression model of the C-D production function and Box-Cox transform model of the CES production function. Further, making use of Bayesian estimate analyzes the Box-Cox transform the CES production function, the CES production function suits more the industrial structure analysis of the our country. End, getting the conclusion and the suggestion with analytical substantial evidence:The second industry is the main factor of Chinese economic growth, but recent rapid industrial growth caused "bottleneck" problems; The proportion of first industry drops, the proportion of third industry increases, Every industry growth rate increases the level of GDP, the industrial structure exists between the asymmetrical, therefore, rationally adjusting the second industry internal relations, going to the new industrial road, optimizing the first industry development, developing the third results will provide demonstration and theory base to establish the pertinent policy, this will provide important theory and practice meaning to keep our economy steady development.