Types Of Population Forecast Model Improvements And Empirical Analysis

The population problem is the most basic and the most complex problem related to social economic development, which is concerned of by many areas all over the world. Population development has great difference in some developing countries, such as, the population birth rate is high; and some developed countries the fertility rate is too low, or even negative growth, these phenomena will cause a series of social and economic problems, such as, unemployment, aging, and affect social stability.China has the largest population in the world, many ethnic coexistence, vast territory and abundant resources and resource of average per capita, since the reform and opening up, China's economic society has achieved a success. However, the population has become a primary factor of Chinese economic development. The stability of the country needs balance and sustainable development. Stable development need to close the gap of the fair and balance about opportunities and resources, this paper concerns through the analysis of population development equation, concerned about the regional national population development status and trend, mainly considering the total population index.This paper includes three parts of contents: The first chapter mainly introduces the recent domestic population problems and foreign population problems on research status, analysis of the population development equation of the development process and relevant equations in some domestic application.The second chapter uses Malthus model of population development and population development equation of block Logistic population in the ethnic minority areas problems and the test about their applicability.The third chapter contains some specific empirical analysis under the regional area. It weeks the assumed conditions of block Logistic population equation according to the actual situation in the region, introducing the floating population as the most impartment factor influence the total population. Population development equation of Logistic block is improved, and taking Guangxi as a research object of.