Empirical Research, Short-term International Capital Flows Influencing Factors

With the integration of the world economy, the acceleration of the process of financial liberalization and the wide range of applications of computer technology, international capital, a larger, faster speed of the free flow of international financial markets and emerging market economies has had a profound impact. With the acceleration of the process of capital account liberalization in China, the total amount of the scale of international balance of payments and cross-border capital flows significantly increase the potential risks of short-term international capital flows become increasingly apparent, and thus the regulation of short-term international capital flows, the systemic financial risks prevent a higher demand. China's current overall economic situation is good, but by the impact of U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and a new round of European sovereign debt crisis is still very high risk of frequent changes of the cross-border capital flows.International capital inflows to some extent, effectively alleviate the current lack of liquidity in the process of economic development, the deepening of China's financial markets and financial globalization, promoting a leapfrog development of the Chinese economy, with positive and effect. However, in the current yuan appreciation is expected to diminished, the trend of asset price bubbles appear in the background, the short-term international capital flows with the expectation of RMB appreciation mutually reinforcing impact on China's exchange rate mechanism; short-term international capital flows to the formation of excess money supply is the flow the main source of excess, but also to promote the main force of the bubble in asset prices; large-scale inflow of short-term international capital impact on the central bank's monetary control policy.The theoretical basis of international economics, international finance, econometrics, first use the summarized analysis of the channels of international short-term capital inflows, estimated net short-term capital inflows, and in accordance with the trade surplus, FDI, trade surplusshort-term capital hidden, hidden in FDI in the short-term situation to be adjusted. Monthly data to determine the actual short-term capital flows; followed by study of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform in the context of international short-term capital influencing factors, to determine the main factors, contains the short-term capital flows (SCF), domestic and foreign interest rate (IRD), the expected exchange rate changes (EER), the capital market rate of return (SSR), five variables VAR econometric model of the real estate market yields (REP), analysis of the impact of various factors on the short-term capital, and the use of the impulse response, investigated the size of one standard deviation the impact of the new interest, the various factors on the short-term capital flows, current value and future value, and then use the variance decomposition method to assess the relative importance of the impact of each variable, ie the proportion of contribution to the total contribution of each variable. Finally, from the interest rate markets, currency markets, capital markets, banking institutions, research and international short-term capital impact of China's financial development, and gives reasonable policies and proposals.