Research On China’s Short-term International Capital Flows And Risk Factors Control

In2008U.S. subprime mortgage crisis， the global economy shrank， in2011acomprehensive upgrade of the European sovereign debt crisis and the global financialsituation has become more complex and unstable， global economy is falteringforward， fluctuations in international capital flows more frequent and unpredictable.With Our exchange rate reform in2005， the implementation of managed floatingexchange rate system， the gradual opening of capital markets and the gradualrelaxation of capital controls， as the inflow of international capital market provides agood foundation. Short-term international capital flows to energize China’s financialmarkets， but also to speed up the process of opening up China’s capital market.However， the recent appreciation of the renminbi as the pressure continues to rise andasset prices continue to rise， more and more capital based on the " arbitrage " motivesinto our country， the rapid expansion of the scale of international capital flows，especially in the face of short-term international massive reversal of capital inflows andthe impact and shock， to bring a lot of potential risks in China’s economy， Theproblem of short-term international capital flows has aroused much attention ofscholars.This paper describes the meaning of short-term international capital flows and theclassic motivation theory, decision theory, including interest rates, foreign exchangerates determinism portfolio theory and transaction cost theory. Describe the currentsituation of global capital flows and the status quo of China’s capital flows andcharacteristics, summarized in several short-term international capital flow channels inthe country, including the current account under the undergrowth and concentratedflow channels under the capital account and the "underground banks"," currencysmuggling." and other illegal covert flow channels. On the basis of our short-termcapital inflows to estimate direct and indirect. Analysis of the current drawcharacteristics and development trends of new short-term international capital flows,and the use of short-term capital flows due to dynamic theory, combined with the actualsituation of China ’s economic analysis of the factors affecting our short-terminternational capital flows have the interest rate differential, exchange rate differences, stock market prices and investment in investor confidence. Which affect the interest ratedifferential and investor confidence significantly correlated with the other twoshort-term international capital is more complex. In this paper, empirical modelingmethods allow researchers more persuasive. Systematic analysis of the impact ofshort-term international capital flows to the Chinese economy, and concludes withpolicy recommendations for China to regulate short-term international capital flows,including the opening of capital account controls, based on the exchange rate controlsand short-short-term international capital its capital and other long countermeasures.These proposals to our country to manage international capital has an importantreference.