Research On Risk Warning To Raising The Pooling Level Of Basic Pension Insurance

In October2010, the National People's Congress passed the People's Republic of China SocialSecurity Act, and proposed that the basic pension insurance should achieve national polling finally.Pension insurance at the national level will be achieved to meet the essential requirement of thesocialization of pension insurance. With the study on the risk of raising pooling level of the pensioninsurance, strengthening of early warning and prevention, will facilitate the proper handling ofrelevant interests. That, undoubtedly, will be of great significance for healthy functioning of thepension insurance.This article draw on the methods and theories of financial system risk warning, combined withthe actual situation of the pooling level of our country, and present views on the risk warning toincreasing pooling level of the pension insurance.The article is divided into five parts. The first part focuses on the significance of building up apre-warning system on pooling level of the pension insurance, and sum up the domestic and foreignscholars as well as overseas reform experience.The second part is mainly about pension insurance function and risk warning theory. Thetheory about the basic pension function,the risk management theory and the theory of risk warningmake a foundation for the establishment of early warning mechanism.The third part is an important chapter of this article. This part focuses on SWOT analysis of thefactors that affect the pooling level improvement in the basic pension insurance from fourperspectives of the political, economic, social, management. The article maintains that the poolinglevel of pension insurance in China is low, developing slowly, but now, our country have thequalifications to raise the pooling level of the basic pension insurance, and also face a variety ofopportunities and challenges.The fourth part is the core part of this paper. It is to build a pre-warning system of raisingpooling level of the basic pension insurance. First, it proposes to build the purpose and principles ofthe risk early warning indicators, and ensure the selection of the indicators have scientific andpractical; The thesis will seek the source of pre-warning, analyze the sign of risks and choose17indicators in4subsystems—Political, economic, social and governance; we will, based on thewell-recognized pre-warning value of all indicators in china and abroad, divide the critical points,calculate the weight of all indicators with universal analytic hierarchy process and go on a consistent test to fix the overall weight of all indicators. In the thesis, we will set up pre-warningindicator system to pooling level of the basic pension insurance which is a hierarchy of manyindicators, in order to measure quantitatively the risks of pooling level of the basic insurance.The last part is the support system of pre-warning system on raising pooling level of pensioninsurance. From theory, policy and technical aspects for the establishment of early warningmechanism to provide.