The Growth Path Of Yunnan Agriculture(1978-2010)

This article used the agricultural input and output data of Yunnan from1978to2010, with the Malmquist index method to calculate total factor productivity (TFP), and the TFP index is decomposed into technical efficiency and technological progress index. In this way, I estimated the growth efficiency of agricultural. Then I researched the changes of partial factor productivity with technology innovation theory to study the path of elements depending and the features of technical options.It is concluded that:the agricultural TFP of Yunnan is lower, while the fluctuations are more obvious. The lower agricultural TFP led to a lack of efficiency of agricultural growth. So that in1978the input and output of Yunnan and Guangxi are similar, while in2010the output of Guangxi is half more than that of Yunnan when both input are not very different. Based on the agricultural total factor productivity decomposition, I found that the agricultural technical progress index maintained steady growth while technical efficiency has demonstrated a long downward trend. The technology progress promoted agricultural TFP and the decline of technical efficiency had a negative effect on agricultural TFP. It's a result of the low efficiency in technology promotion and spreading. On the technical efficiency of decomposition, technical efficiency declined mainly due to pure technical efficiency decline, the good effect of expanding scale was gained.Comparison of the agricultural labor productivity and land productivity, on the initial stage of reforming and opening, the rate of land productivity growth was faster than that of labor productivity, later the trend changed. It showed that the agriculture growth in the beginning mainly relied on biological and chemical technology, while then the mechanical technology also played a significant role. Based on the regression of agricultural growth and element investment, it has come to a similar conclusion which suggesting that the depending of Yunnan agriculture growth on the mechanical technology and labor productivity growth was increasing.Yunnan's agricultural employment reached16.71million in2010. Agriculture absorbed60%of the employed population which was23.7percent higher than the national level. Yunnan agricultural labor productivity growth was slower that the ratio of labor productivity between Yunnan's and nationwide dropped from0.72in1978to0.46in2010. If it maintained the ratio of0.72in1978, Yunnan surplus agricultural labor force in2010would be more than5million. It reflects Yunnan agricultural labor productivity is low. It also reflects the serious shortage of labor absorption capacity of non-agricultural industries in Yunnan. From this perspective, in order to achieve greater and sustainable development, it should make greater efforts to promote the transfer and promote the industrialization of agriculture.