Study On The Optimal Growth Path Of GDP In Yunnan Province Under Energy Restriction

With the rapid development of the economy, the energy consumption has been increasing sharply. The energy constraints to the economic development of the countries and regions become obvious increasingly, and the energy problem increasingly become a major problem restricting the development of the economy. In recent years the rapid development of the economy in Yunnan province, accompany with a large number of energy consumption. Low energy efficiency has always been a big problem restricting the economic development of Yunnan province. So the study on the optimal economic growth path with energy constraints in Yunnan province is significant to the theory and the reality.This article first expounds the energy constraint theory. Energy as the driving force of economic development, promotes the development of the economy and the society. At the same time, energy restricts the economic development due to its scarcity. With the rapid development of economy, the increasing energy consumption makes the energy problem more and more serious. Secondly, review the different economic theories, trying to get the energy impact on economic models, and provide theoretical basis for the following analysis. Then a concrete analysis of the current situation of energy consumption in Yunnan province and its existing problems appear. According to the economic development of Yunnan province since Chinese economic reform, the paper has carried on the quantitative analysis of the data, make energy utilization situation and existing problems of more clear. Starting from the fourth chapter, it would construct a three-sector DSGE model, including the economic subjects of residents, producers of the intermediate products and the final products, and the government department. The paper introduces five kinds of exogenous shocks: monetary policy shock, technology shock, labor supply shock, energy shock and government purchasing power shock,to analyze the impact on macro economy and also the transmission mechanism of these shocks. The results show that the impact of the energy shock accounts for the largest proportion among the five shocks, form the main source of economic fluctuations. The conduction mechanism of the exogenous shocks is determined by the model, so the impact of the conduction path has a certain similarity, but the specific conduction paths exist certain differences. The simulation results show that the energy price and the technological progress is the key factor to change the present situation of the energy utilization in Yunnan province. Finally, the paper gives policy suggestion: increase the intensity of industrial adjustment, and support enterprise to try technical innovation, encourage the development of high-tech industries, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization, at the same time, actively strive for the national support to create the better conditions for energy and economic development in Yunnan province.