Port Container Throughput Capacity Forecasting Of Fujian Province Based On Gray Combination Model

As an important part of the port logistics,container logistics is one of thehallmarks measurement of the status of ports in international trade,the containerthroughput forecast is also an important part of the port development strategy．Coastalports of Fujian Province,part of the national,has an important position in the nationalintegrated transport system and Taiwan Trade．With full advancing of economic zoneconstruction in Western Coast of the Taiwan Straits and the achievement ofcross-strait "three links",port will face tremendous opportunities．As the rapideconomic development of port hinterland,macroeconomic policy,domestic andinternational macroeconomic and other factors,gap between results and actual statusof port container throughput prediction is still existed．In this context,FujianProvince's port container throughput is more accurately predicted,and a theoreticalbasis for the planning and construction of container transport was provided．Firstly,the theory and method for port container throughput forecast werereviewed,gray model and combining model described in the application status of theport container throughput forecast was elaborated．Against uncertain factors of portcontainer throughput and its complex relationship,the rules and characteristics of portcontainer throughput data were analyzed before the forecast,then the port containerthroughput forecast methodology was established．Secondly,we analyze the problemsof GM (1,1) model in the modeling process and and its improved method,propose aparticle swarm optimization optimize the background value and the initial value ofGM (1,1) model,combine the linear regression model with particle swarmoptimization gray GM (1,1) model．The model is applied to Fujian port containerthroughput forecasting with a single predictive model predictions werecompared．Compared to regression analysis and the GM(1,1) model,the predictionresults show that forecast accuracy is improved and results are morereasonable．Finally,according to the results,a number of recommendations wereproposed combining with the development of container logistics in Fujian Province．...