Research And Application Of Grey Prediction Model Based On Opposite-accumulating Generation

With complexity of develop environment of society and economics, as well as diversity ofdevelop trend of society and economics, there’re some deficiency limitation of the existing grey foremodel in application. Following the logic train of thought of “proposing problems, analyzingproblems, solving problems”, staring from researching on properties of opposite-accumulatinggeneration, this paper optimized background value and time response series of GOM(1,1) model.Meanwhile, it constructed GOM(1,2) model and GOM(2,1) model, in hope of further perfect greyprediction theory and broad application field of it. Main tasks are as following:(1) For difference of opposite accumulating generation series and traditional accumulatinggeneration series, it proved quasi-smooth and quasi-exponential discipline of opposite accumulatinggeneration series.(2) Begin with forming principle of background value, it constructed most optimized backgroundvalue of GOM(1,1) model which is able to fully reflect data information. Based on optimizedbackground value, GOM(1,1) model can well fit decreasing series of fully exponential principle, aswell as better fit increasing series of fully exponential principle. GOM(1,1) model’s high simulationand prediction accuracy of GOM(1,1) model has been proved by social and economic date in reality.(3) Through studying principle and property of opposite accumulating generation, and accordingto modeling principle of grey prediction model, it constructed prediction model of GOM(1,2) andGOM(2,1) which can meet with data series of special develop principle, and it did parameterestimation and pre-solving to model.(4) Using optimized GOM(1,1) model, it built prediction model respectively for each main indexof China’s energy conservation and emission reduction. Based on constructed prediction model, it didsimulation and prediction, as well as put forward practical measures and suggestions for China’senergy conservation and emission reduction during the “12th five-year plan”.