Based On Leslie Model Of Prediction And Analysis Of Population Aging In Hubei Province

In the21st century, the process of Hubei province’s population aging is accelerated ceaselessly.the rapid development of aging population in Hubei province can not only increase the social burden, but also increase the family burden.If the population aging in Hubei province continues to intensify in the future, retired and retiring persons in the proportion of the population will continue to increase, the endowment insurance fund expenditure gap will also become bigger and bigger, it will certainly brings Hubei social security institution a huge pressure,which will greatly affect the social security level of Hubei province and the improvement of social security scope expansion, and increase workers’ economic burden, and ultimately it will affect the sustainable development of society. This article from the following several sides to predict and analysis Hubei aging population.Firstly,combine the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis refers to research objects by "quality" aspects of the analysis, which is defined to describe the basic characteristics of things or essential characteristics.Quantitative analysis is a method for the quantity characteristics, quantity relationship and quantity change analysis of the research object.and it is used to measure things development degree or how much. Based on the reference to previous research results and the present situation of Hubei province,this article uses a lot of quantitative analyse to forecast an aging popular for Hubei province, I sometimes use the mothod of qualitative analysis to analyse the current situation of the Hubei province’s aging population.Secondly,theoretical research and practical analysis are combined together. By the domestic and overseas scholars on China’s aging population prediction theory as the guide, combining the actual situation of hubei province, hubei province to the total population, aging coefficient and other related factors to carry on the concrete analysis, and then I put forward the corresponding countermeasure and the suggestion.Thirdly, it took me two major steps to predict the anging popular of Hubei province. First of all,to influence the aging of the population index using principal component analysis for dimension reduction, equal dimension grey number available dynamic GM (1,1) model, based on2005-2010each year for the aging population statistics, to predict short-term aging population more accurately. Again this article uses Leslie matrix prediction model to forecast the long-term in hubei province, and reflect the trend of population structure changing.Fourth, on the basis of analysis in Hubei province’s aging population prediction, for the government in the face of the aging of the population increasing problems and providing more accurate parameters, to ensure that the government of Hubei province in advance the layout. Improving the aging industry and social old-age security system, in order to give play the old human resources in the national economy and promote the role of national economy, and put forward policy recommendations to fastern economic growth.