| Jiangsu province is located in sea-land transition zone and climate transition zone of mid latitude, and influenced by the weather system of westerlies, subtropics and low-latitude easterlies, so there are many kinds of meteorological disasters which have broad influence. It is one of the provinces which occurs the most serious meteorological disasters. The main meteorological disasters include torrential rain, flood, high temperature, drought, typhoon, strong convection (including high winds, hail, tornado, etc.) and so on. The economy of Jiangsu province is highly developed which also has dense population, so the effects and losses caused by all kinds of meteorological disasters are serious, at the same time, other derivative disasters will be induced.Based on the disaster data statistics of Jiangsu in recent years, this paper selects storm, drought, high winds, hail as main research objects, analyzes the climate characteristics and its influence of the four disasters. Overall, meteorological disasters bring huge direct economic losses and present the rising trend in fluctuation. The rainstorm flood is one of the largest disaster which effects on crops in Jiangsu province. Compared with drought, torrential rains and flood are more easily to cause the total destruction of the crops. Recently, the proportion of crop failures and deaths in total disasters caused by the major meteorological disasters decreased obviously. The drought all over the province is more and more serious. Strong convection weather such as hail, thunder and lightning can cause casualties much more easily.According to the Meteorological data in the recent years, the value-at-risk of the rain storm amount, level of drought, wind day, hail day etc. are calculated using the risk assessment method based on information diffuse theory. The results show that the rainstorm mainly concentrated in Suqian and Taizhou of Jiangsu. Related departments should do well in the prevention work of these areas. The probability of drought in north of Jiangsu is greater than that in south of Jiangsu. The north of Jiangsu is the main area to control drought as it is the main producing area of the province’s food. The cities which are located in the eastern coast are easy to be influenced by gale, next are Nanjing and Suqian. The high risk area of hail is located in Yancheng, Suqian, Lianyungang and other cities, of which the hail value-at-risk of Yancheng is greater than other cities. So related departments should pay attention to the prevention work of the coastal areas of strong winds and hail disasters.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of four meteorological disasters and taking torrential rain disasters in Jiangsu province as an example, this paper establishes torrential rain disaster risk assessment and zoning model. With the aid of GIS spatial analysis and mapping function, this paper makes risk evaluation of rainstorm disaster in Jiangsu province, divides the level of disaster regionalization and draws the map of risk zoning of rainstorm disaster in Jiangsu province. The map shows that the high risk areas of torrential rain disasters in Jiangsu province mainly concentrate in the north of Huaian, Suqian and Lianyungang. Except that north of Xuzhou, Suzhou and west of Huaian are located in low risk areas, other areas of Jiangsu are located in medium risk area. |
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