Study Of Ecological Security Assessment About Jiangsu Province Based On The Ecological Footprint

With the rapid economic development of society, environment and ecological problems were intensified. Thus, in recent years, the research of ecological safety evaluation became the focus of research at home and abroad. From the angle of land and water resources using, regional resource consumption and demand conditions were measured by ecological footprint with the help of productive land area. Because of the characteristics of its concise, ecological footprint method was generally recognized by the international, and became one of the most main methods in the assessment of regional ecological security.This article was based on the ecological footprint method, the basic theory of ecological footprint and ecological safety were analyzed. The second part was mainly based on a theoretical perspective; the factors influencing ecological safety and its mechanism were analyzed from nature, economy, society and policy, hypothesizes were proposed. In order to probe different effects on the ecological safety during these factors, hypothesis model was constructed, the questionnaire survey was used and structure of ecological safety factors in Jiangsu province was analyzed with the related analysis and regression analysis. Through the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and the Delphi experts’investigation, ecological footprint model was improved. By blending the factors influencing ecological safety, with help of the ecological deficit/surplus, ecological coordinate coefficient, the ecological footprint of diversity and ecological footprint pressure index, the ecological security analysis were determined. Following the basis theory of analysis,2001-2009years of relevant data were selected, and ecological safety assessment of Jiangsu province was conducted. Finally, according to the analysis of affecting factors, some policy suggestions of ecological security in Jiangsu province were put forward to promote harmonious development with nature, economy and society. Research results were as listed below:(1) Ecological safety was significantly associated with nature, economy, society and policy, and then natural factors occupied a major position in four influential factors. That is to say, the economic, social and political factors affected ecological safety through natural factors, and finally it reflected ecological safety conditions through the change of natural factors. Thus, the assessment of ecological safety should be emphatically measured from the natural factors, especially, the source changing of land and water.(2) Through the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and the Delphi experts investigation, the weights about kinds of lands were determined according to their rank of EF and EC in Jiangsu province. The weight of farmland, forest land, meadow, water, land for construction, fossil land in EF were0.4019,0.0839,0.0375,0.0334,0.2869,0.1565, the weight of farmland, forest land, meadow, water, land for construction, fossil land in EC were0.2538,0.0839,0.0498,0.1512,0.4282,0.0332.(3) From2001-2009years, Jiangsu province was been in ecological deficit situation. Ecological coordinate coefficient was reduced, which were all in the1-1.414, specially closed to1.That is to say, ecological coordination about Jiangsu province was poor. The ecological footprint diversity indices of Jiangsu province were in1.24-1.40and which were increased in the future. That’s to say, the ecological system in Jiangsu province was not stable. And ecological footprint pressure indices increased year after year, from11.08to12.98. That’s to say, ecological situation of Jiangsu province was unsafe.