Analysis About The Potential Of Sulfur Dioxide Reducing Emission And Factors In China’ Various Province

Climatic change is the hot issue and has caused wide public concern in most countries all over the world. Curbing global warming and reducing pollutant emissions have become the consensus of the countries in the world in the21st century. Constraints of resources and environment to economic development have become increasingly prominent, strong consumption of energy resources is a high price behind the rapid economic growth. Compared to the world, per capita amount of resources in China is small, the energy consumption of unit output value is from several times or even several dozen times compared with per unit of output in the developed countries. The high energy consumption of unit output value implies that unit output value of China also raises havoc among the environment. Although pollution prevention and control in China have made tremendous progress, but the discharge of pollutants remains the outstanding problem faced our country. As the intensification of the level of environmental pollution, pollution control costs will increase. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions of China in2006was25.888million tons, ranking first in the world. Faced with the pressure of public opinion of the international environment, in addition, China is in the process of rapid urbanization and industrialization stage, our country is bound to accelerate the economic transformation. Therefore, the gist of the article is the potential of sulfur dioxide reducing emission, aiming to analyze the impact of economic development indicators to the potential of the sulfur dioxide reducing emission.First of all, according to the topic, author advances the background and significance of the study, reviews domestic and international research and literature about sulfur dioxide emissions and obtains research content and ideas. How to solve the shackles of the environmental pollution to China’s economic development at the present time, how to reduce the resources and energy consumption per unit of output in the new period, and ultimately achieve the purpose of reducing pollutant emissions per unit of output. By summing up the research literatures at home and abroad, this text comes that the main research directions of the domestic emissions of sulfur dioxide are economic growth and SO2emissions, foreign trade and foreign direct investment and SO2emissions, thermal power and SO2emissions, SO2emission control respectively. Author makes these factors in combination with studying the impact of factors on China’s sulfur dioxide reducing emission.Secondly, according to the scope of research subject, author uses of environmental economics, environmental learning curve and spatial econometrics to provide theoretical support for specific research below. By selecting China’s30provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities(missing data of Tibetan areas) sulfur dioxide emissions of per10000yuan production and per capita GDP in1995-2009, the paper applies environmental learning curve to arrive power exponential curve about economic development and sulfur dioxide emissions in China’various province. Upon power exponential curve in China’various province to arrive at the potential value of reducing emission, the author discovers that with the high level of economic development, the potential value of sulfur dioxide reducing emissions in the region of eastern China is small. The potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission in major province of energy and west area are high, for the energy cost of major province of energy is small, the phenomenon of extensive exploit is significant; the economic development in the region of western China falls behind and the degree of intensification of economic development is small, this brings about high pollutant emissions per unit of output. In future, these areas is the major regions of emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, should be the main area of concern China’s sulfur dioxide reducing emission.Then, the author analyzes spatial correlation about the potential value of sulfur dioxide reducing emission in China’various province by exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) in1995-2009. It is identified that global Moran’s I value about the potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission in1995on Chinese province and city is0.0335and doesn’t pass the exam10%confidence interval. For that, the paper indicates that reduction potential value of sulfur dioxide emission on Chinese province and city does not exist spatial correlation in1995. Since1996, the potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission in China’various province continuously enhance space autocorrelation, and the space factor constantly enhances in the sulfur dioxide emission reduction. Although space Moran value in2009reduces, still shows spatial correlation.Finally, the paper selects six economic development indicators of affecting sulfur dioxide emission, which are industrial structure, thermal power generation, crude steel yield, sulfate production, foreign trade exports and foreign direct investment respectively, analyzes whether these indicators have a great effect on reduction potential of sulfur dioxide emissions or not. Underway spatial analysis by spatial lag model(SAR) and spatial error model(SEM), these explanatory variates conducte significance level test, it is identified that these indicators commendably explain variable characteristics of the potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission. Among them, the industrial structure, foreign trade exports and foreign direct investment have a negative impact on China’s potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission, upgrading of an industrial structure effectively reduces the potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission in China’ various province; the thermal power generation, crude steel yield and sulfuric acid production have a positive effect, thermal power generation plays an important role in keeping the potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission remain high.In short, according to the above statistical analysis, exploratory data spatial analysis and spatial econometric analysis, the paper describes variation tendency of total emission amount of sulfur dioxide pollution in1995-2009about China, and analyzes distributive characteristics of sulfur dioxide emission and spatial correlation about the potential values of sulfur dioxide reducing emission in China’ various province. It is identified that indicators of economic development play an important role in reducing potential value of sulfur dioxide reducing emissions, and definite emission reducing spatial of sulfur dioxide emission and emission reducing influencing factors in China’ various province, providing a theoretical reference for China’s "12th Five " specific emission reduction of sulfur dioxide.