Investigation Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential Of Typical Industry In Anhui Province

The global warming climate has a serious influence on natural ecologicalsystem and human survival environment, which caused by the increasingconcentrations of greenhouse gas, It is the high time to solve these urgentproblems. In order to control discharge of greenhouse gas effectively and slowdown the warming trend of global climate, the departments of industrialproduction, agricultural activity and waste disposal have important tasks toreduce emissions of greenhouse gas.In this thesis, the research object is the typical department of greenhouse gasemissions is larger in Anhui province, including industrial every departments,thermal power and landfill industry. First of all, based on both domestic andforeign investigation, we have formed the contents and idea of research. Next,we have described low carbon economy, scenario analysis, gray forecast modeland energy consumption model detailedly as the theoretical and analysisfoundation for study. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emission of typicalindustry in Anhui province has been evaluated using the estimation method.Finally, the greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential of various industriesin2020have been predicted based on the gray prediction model and we putforward strategies according to the results of the study. The research resultsindicate as follows:(1). The variation trendency of total carbon dioxide emissions from2006to2011in Anhui province is increasing, mainly focused on electric power, coal,metallurgy and other energy-intensive industrial sectors. As a whole, carbonemissions intensity appeared downtrend, combined with china carbon reductiontgoal found that coal sector has most pressure to reduce emissions. Until to2020,the ratio of three kind of primary enery consumption of industrial sectors will bea certain change, the usage amount of natural gas will incrase obviously, morethan50%, in food, papermaking and mechanical sector, however, the energyconsumption of coal still accounts for over80%in the total primary energyconsumption. Contrast to2011, the carbon dioxide emissions in Anhui provincestill reach to1.7billion tons, thereinto, chemistry, metallurgy, electric powerand coal sectors rank the first four and they should become the focus of thecarbon emissions in the future. (2).Recently, the amount of thermal power generation increased rapidly inAnhui province. From2006to2011, the average annual growth is17.71%;thermal power installed capacity increased from1.4134million kilowatt to2.959million kilowatt, which always accounts for more than93%in totalinstalled capacity of power. Coal consumption of thermal power from2006to2011dropped29g/KWh, which has achived the target of the “11th five–yearenergy planning”. The greenhouse gas emissions in thermal power sector,composed by mainly CO2and seldomly N2O, presented rising trend and itsincrement is large from109million ton in2006to240millon ton in2011. Bycomparing the emissions potential under benchmark scenario, energyoptimization scenario and plicy objective scenario, the emissions potential ofcarbon dioxide of plicy objective scenario is maximum, which can reaches to55.6millon tons and the minimum value is15.3million tons under energyoptimization scenario. Therefore, in order to achieve the emissions reductionpotential of the policy objective contexts, thermal power industry shouldstrengthen the transformation of coal-fired power plants in Anhui province.(3). From2002to2005, the amount of garbage innocuiry disposal of cityliving garbage is far lower than the amount of transportation in Anhui province.The former one increased slowly from2006. The emissions of landfill gas (CH4)of Hefei and Wuhu is estimatd to be the largest in2020in Anhui province,which accounts for50%of the total emissions, followed by Anqing, Huaibei andLu’an, the least one is Tongling. According to the current increasing trend ofgarbage output, the emissions reducing potential of garbage landfill gas canreach to1.46billion tons in Anhui province, especially Hefei and Wuhu city,both of whose emissions potential is more than300millon tons, outclasses othercities.