Estimate The Coal And Gas Outbursts Hazard On The Combination Of Analytic Hierarchy And Fuzzy Probability

China is a large country with pretty rich resources, which takes coal as the main energy source. In the resources utilization structure in our country, coal can be accounted for70%. Even in the long future, coal will keep being an important role in the whole energy structure. Beside the abundant reserves, we have to face the situation that geological disasters always happen, including that coal and gas outburst is one of the most serious natural disasters. Coal and gas outburst is a quite complicated kind of nonlinear dynamic process, which is related to crustal stress, gas status and physical and mechanical properties of coal. Currently, the most important task for coal mine enterprise is just safety. However, the phenomenon coal and gas outburst has a negative effect on the safe productivity of coal mine enterprises. Therefore, it is very significant and important for the whole safety situation of our country to make risk analysis and prediction of coal and gas outburst.So far, so many scientific researchers from home and aboard have made a lot of research on the coal and gas outburst risk analysis and predicting and provided many scientific and effective methods. This paper is aimed at using a new model-Hierarchical analysis and Fuzzy probability model to make a judgment for the coal and gas outburst danger. Except that, through the calculation and the verification, make sure further that the method is scientific, effective and reasonable.This paper based on coal and gas outburst mechanism and the comprehensive analysis about coal and gas outburst influencing factors, refers to the traditional prediction ways, combine the Hierarchical analysis method and Fuzzy probability method, build a new model which is used to judge the danger level of coal and gas outburst. When the judge result is calculated, the software-MATLAB-is introduced in order to make the calculation simple and efficient. By working out a program language, nine working faces of Pingding Mount East mine are considered as samples to make coal and gas outburst risk analysis conveniently. So, the Hierarchical analysis and Fuzzy probability model is proved to be an effective method again.At last, through the study, these conclusions are showed:1) The method that judging the danger level of coal and gas outburst by Hierarchical analysis and Fuzzy probability model is very reasonable. And based on the fuzzy synthetically judgment, overcome the subjective factors and increase the reliability of it.2) Through the analysis for coal and gas outburst risk, the following works about preventing the outburst obtain scientific accordance and theoretical direction, which greatly decrease the property losses and the death of people, and increase the safety.