Based On Fuzzy Matter-Element Analysis Of Coal And Gas Outburst Prediction

The consumption of coal is about 70% of Chinese energy consumption; the demand of energy is growing up as Chinese economic development. The coal will be still the main energy in the future. The first step of prevention is making the prediction on coal mining; it plays the most important role in the whole process.Completeing the prediction work not only to have the significant economic efficiency and the social efficiency, it brings the security benefit is unable to estimate.The article indicates that the significance of coal and gas prediction understanding with study and investigation.The first the fuzzy matter-element analysis method was applied to coal and gas outburst prediction model.There should be a statement for the mechanism of coal and gas status, the condition of occurrence and relevant factors with basic regulations. Through the analysis of fuzzy element foundation, the combination of those matter elements will establish the comprehensive index prediction system of gas. Based on this fuzzy elements theory and combine of Entropy method determining the impact of weight of outburst factor,select outburst indicators of factors, the application of Entropy Law fuzzy which avoid the subjectivity of the weights of expert scoring method model prediction and the incompatibility of gas outburst prediction and the advantage of will make the forecasts,this is where the innovation of my paper. In the instance of the application,as calculating and analysising of data for Sihe mine of Jincheng coal mining Group and Compared with the actual conditions obtaining good results, which applied the feasibility of this method.Finally, it is more than I used Luan Coal Group coal and gas outburst in practice, and select drilling cuttings desorption index of parameters of gas outburst(K1), drilling gas emission rate(Δp), consistent coefficient of coal(f) and the amount of gas in the measured location (Q) establish of a comprehensive index of four basic indicators prediction system, and ultimately come to mine the critical value of integrated indicators, the results show:the premise that security is guaranteed, with the traditional single indicator prediction(K1)value compared to the use of this method can effectively reduce so that the anti-mine sudden workload.The focus on the complexity of the process, all mine geological structure, coal, and other factors to stress different factors affect the outstanding master is not the same, using this method to establish comprehensive index prediction system will highlight the impact of a number of factors into account, can predict a more reasonable and reliable.The examples show that fuzzy matter element analysis which be used in practical applications with the reliability and operability, provide a new way of thinking and method to prediction coal and gas outburst.