Prediction Of Unused Production Capacity Of Manufacturing Enterprise Based On Electricity

An enterprise purchaser usually owns many manufacturing suppliers in a supply chain, thismakes purchaser face to supplier-selecting problems and order allocation questions. It isimportant to check every manufacturing supplier’s qualification before conformingmanufacturing suppliers and making purchase decision, and Unused Production Capacity in theperiod of orders is one of the pivotal contents to check. Suppliers may provide incorrectinformation to purchasers in current fierce competition market because production capacity,order information, program of production is enterprise’s private information and purchaserenterprise and manufacturing suppliers enterprise aren’t respective relations, moreover,manufacturing suppliers purse to get maximum order from purchaser enterprise. Therefore, howto get manufacturing suppliers’ actual product information turns to be the bottleneck forchecking their Unused Production Capacity. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposesa convenient method of obtaining production information based on electricity and forecastingmanufacturing suppliers’ Unused Production Capacity based on their historical electricityowning to the information of electricity is authentic, convenient to be testified and obtained, Italso provides a new method for manufacturing enterprises to grasp their own future productsituation.The article discussed the feasibility of Prediction of Unused Production Capacity ofManufacturing Suppliers Based on Electricity from the opinion of manufacturing system, thenEstablish forecasting model. The prediction process was separated into three parts: relationshipanalysis between month Electricity and month product quantity based enterprise historicalsamples, prediction model establishment of unused production capacity of manufacturingsuppliers based on electricity, model verification.First, the paper analyses the influencing factor of electricity in manufacturing companies,there are two kinds of factors: goods production factor and goods non-production factors, timechanging and climate changing is the main non-production influencing factor, we call themseason influencing variables. Using part of samples to perform regression analysis betweenelectricity and product quantity, then calculates the season influencing variables of other months,by this time we can get the nonlinear relationship of total samples.Second, because Gray system theory is a method to research on the non-determinism withlittle data and information, this paper adopt GM(1,1) model to predict future electricity and future unused production capacity together with production capacity theory, electricity seasoninfluencing variables calculation and unused production capacity utilize rate. The reason ofproducing error is analyzed, then utilizes Mutation-cleanout and Moving average method tomodify the model and establishes the model of prediction of unused production capacity ofmanufacturing suppliers based on electricity, and forecast the unused production capacity ofsame kind of company. After model establishment, the paper analyses the advantage of thistechnique.Last, the paper gives applied examples, it has been proved that the model is efficient, theprecision of predication is higher and predicted results are reliable.