Vessel Collision Brittleness Analysis Based On Survey Reports

The vessel collision is always the enemy of ships’ safety. Once the collision occurred, the lives and property will be seriously threatened. Related research has begun in many respects, but the study on collision mechanism needs to be further deepened. Vessel collision accident investigation reports are very important, and safety recommendations can be provided for the relevant personnel, with a lot of implicit information available for related research. Brittleness theory of complex systems is put forward in recent years, providing new ideas for a description of system characteristics. Applied in many areas, brittleness theory is absorbing a variety of mathematical method to enrich itself.The thesis summarizes the relevant study on vessel collision, and introduces the complex system brittleness theory as a new method. The study on collision accident brittleness is based on the information from accident investigation reports, and from the perspective of system theory. The thesis identifies the brittleness risks source involved in vessel collision while the subsystems are divided. With information entropy theory and the theory of set pairing, the brittleness link between subsystems and vessel collision accidents is studied. The results show that the human factors of uncertainty are the most important aspects of accident causation. After brittleness link entropy analysis, with the help of interpretation structural model and graph theory, the relationship between the brittleness factors is studied, in the form of a brittleness propagation model.Several parts of the thesis are complementary, and authenticate each other. They all show that in vessel collision, the insecurity state of the environment is pregnant with danger, and the insecurity factors of human are direct causation of the collision. The thesis further clarifies the mechanism of the collision by new method, and provides safety recommendations.