Study On Brittleness Of Maritime Dangerous Chemicals Transportation System

With the rapid development of the global economy,the transportation of dangerous chemical goods has gradually become one of the important components of sea transportation.The transportation volume of dangerous chemical goods has increased,at the same time,the aging of transport ships is also increasing.With the special physical and chemical properties of dangerous chemical goods and the impact of environmental complexity during shipping,the safety uncertainty of the maritime dangerous chemical transportation continues to increase.The brittleness theory of complex systems is a newly developed theory in recent years,providing new ideas for a description of system characteristics.Applied in many areas,at present,the theory has been applied in many aspects such as system research area.In this study,the brittleness theory of complex system is applied to the study of the maritime dangerous chemicals transportation system,and brittleness is put as the basic characteristic of the MDCTS.Based on the system theory and brittleness theory,the safety of the MDCTS.is studied.Based on the definition of complex system,the objective existence of the brittleness of the MDCTS is proved.Considering the definition of brittleness,the.brittle excitation mechanism of the MDCTS is analyzed in depth from the causes of brittleness and the brittleness excitation conditions,then the diagram of the brittleness excitation mechanism of the MDCTS is proposed.Based on the perspective of brittleness transmission,the brittle structure model of the MDCTS is modeled,basing on which,the influencing factors that influenced the brittleness of the maritime dangerous chemicals transportation are studied from five aspects,including people,ship,cargo,environment and management.Then the hierarchy diagram of brittleness source is achieved.In addition,in view of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,the degree of influence of the brittleness source of the MDCTS to the brittleness of the excitation system is studied,furthermore,the degree of influence is ranked.According to the calculation results,relevant safety management suggestions are proposed from the perspective of brittleness.From the perspective of brittle link entropy,the brittleness correlation model of MDCTS is established,based on entropy theory and the theory of set pairing,the brittleness connection between human-factor subsystem,cargo-factor subsystem,non-human-factor subsystem and transportation accidents is studied.Through the analysis of the investigation report of the dangerous chemicals transportation accidents,the brittleness factors measurement standards is built.In addition,basing on examples of dangerous chemical transportation accidents,the brittleness connection between the subsystem and the accident is studied,moreover,the impact of system internal correlations on system crashes is revealed.The brittleness connection entropy of the subsystem and the entire MDCTS is calculated from the perspective of accident cause.The calculation results show that the uncertainty of human factors and the hazardous attributes of dangerous chemicals are both important causes of the MDCTS accidents.In addition,the prevention of dangerous maritime accidents needs to reduce the identity and volatility of brittleness factors as much as possible.From the perspective of system brittleness,the brittleness of the MDCTS is studied on the basis of the brittleness theory of complex systems and brittleness link entropy theory,from which is a new perspective to study the evolution of the security state of the system,simultaneously,it's a useful supplement to the previous research on the safety of MDCTS,additionally,it completes the content of the safety research on the MDCTS.