The Study Of Traffic Network System Congestion Model Based On Brittleness Theory

As the national economic strength and people's life quality are getting stronger and better,the requirement of punctuality and convenience of travel mode are becoming stricter. At the same time, the high sale volume of automobile which is in the leading position all over the world of six year in a row make the traffic congestion issue become an actual problem in people's daily life. As a result, how to solve this problem and find out an effective forecast method to avoid traffic congestion is becoming an issue researched by many scholars home and abroad.Brittleness is one self-characteristic of a complex system. Traffic network system also has this characteristic for existing as a complex system. This paper's research idea is from the perspective of complex system's brittleness, combining with the entropy theory, analyzing the brittleness of traffic network system, applying related mathematical knowledge, such as fuzzy anarchically hierarchy process (FAHP) and graph theory and combining the brittleness theory with traffic network system model.Firstly, this paper introduces the basic definition and structure model of complex system brittleness, applies the FAHP to analyzing the brittleness of traffic network system and finds out the brittleness factors causing the traffic congestion which is the main factor of causing the traffic network system collapse through the analysis of system, event set and factor.Secondly, this paper analyzes the brittleness relevance among multi-section in traffic network system by building a vehicle transfer model in the system, analyzing the mechanism and transmission of traffic congestion through it and defining the traffic congestion grade and the brittleness transmission. On the basis, it analyzes and decides the traffic operation situation after the traffic congestion happening and the brittleness relevance of multi-section.At the same time, it explains how to decide the brittleness transmission and traffic congestion grade among multi-section in the system by instance analysis.Finally, this paper analyzes the traffic congestion issue based on congestion brittleness forecast entropy function. On the premise of analyzing the original entropy function's advantages and disadvantages, it proposes the modified congestion brittleness forecast entropy function based on factor happening probability, result's severity and uncertainty to build congestion brittleness forecast entropy function model which analyzes the traffic network system to change the value of the congestion predicting entropy function through controlling of the traffic congestion factor's weight in the function, and determine the effectiveness of the controlling method on the basis of the changing trend of the entropy value.It can find out an effective way to forecast and ease the traffic congestion issue which is a new research idea for solving the traffic congestion issue.