The Research Of The Ship Collision Risk Model Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

With the acceleration of economic globalization and integration, the maritime industry is developing rapidly, and the status of water transportation has seen a significant increase. In the meantime, the market is facing more difficulties than ever before, e.g. the rapid increase of the number of ships and tonnages result in the quick reducing of average area for each ship, the trends of upsizing and high speed make the maritime environment more and more complicated. As a result, the maritime casualties happen more frequently, among which collisions account for the largest part. According to statistics, collision occupies more than40percentages of global maritime casualties, with the account of around1000times. Sine1980s, more attention has been paid to the significance of human factors in maritime casualties. Nowadays, the idea that human factor is one of the major reasons has been widely accepted. Information and data from varies resources all supports the argument. For the collision, human factor is the biggest contributor (human factors account for60%-80%. while facilities occupy merely10%). Thus, many scholars raise the concept of CAS (Collision Avoidance System).The aim of CAS is to reduce the impact of human factor by improving identification system, thus reduce the occurrence of collision. Since1970s, in the researches about CAS, Collision Risk Index is an important issue. To some extent, it will have significant impact on reducing collision.Based on The ship collision geometric principle, this thesis adopted fuzzy synthetic discrimination to define Risk function for each parameter. Then, it combines the effects of human factors, ship factors and environment factors to measure Collision Risk Index. It will contribute to the development of AIS and decreasing of occurrence of collision.