The Research On Operation Safety Risk Evaluation Of Jia Yang Small Train Based On Fuzzy Theory

The tourism has been greatly developed under the impetus of service industry. According to related statistics, annual passenger capacity of the Jia Yang small train is rising. In addition, due to imperfect safety management, aging-related equipment, railway naturally complex geological conditions and other factors of the small train, led to many uncertain factors in the process of the small train operations, these uncertain factors severely affect the operational safety of "Jia Yang small train · Ba Shi railway". Therefore, this article will carry on the small train safety risk evaluation based on fuzzy theory and evaluate Jia Yang small train security risk rating, to Provide protection and the basis for the safe operation of the small train.Firstly, the author consulted a large number of literatures and conducted intensive field research, to get familiar with the characteristics of "Jia Yang small train · Ba Shi railway", and ultimately determined Jia Yang small train operator Fuzzy Risk Assessment Model that combined fuzzy theory and risk assessment technology together based on National Railways and metro relevant standards and regulations, this model is the core of "Jia Yang small train · Ba Shi railway" safety evaluation subject. In addition, according to the selection principle of risk assessment indicators and related processes, build a scientific, systematic and objective small train operator fuzzy risk assessment index system, the index system includes four first-level indexes, namely operational management K1, locomotive vehicle K2, signal equipment K3 and geological conditions K4, and eighteen secondary indexes, namely K11, K12,...,K44.Secondly, based on the principles of risk evaluation index construction, this paper finally defined each secondary index, through using the method of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and determined assignment standard of each secondary index risk severity and risk probability Membership function is determined to provide expert objective scoring standard, help to reduce the influence of subjective factors in the evaluation process, in addition, the paper also gives the index risk value and the risk level criteria.Finally, according to Ka Yang train fuzzy risk evaluation index system, this paper calculates the index weight value that affects the safe operation of Jia Yang small train by using Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then the author conducted the fuzzy risk assessment to jia Yang small train operation, and calculated risk value of each secondary index and first-level index, which the higher risk value indexes are:tunnel safety K41, derailment risk K23, braking performance K21, slope safety K42 and block system K32; the final conclusion is that jia Yang small train operation safety risk level belongs to level 3.This paper formed risk factors evaluation form of each index based on the results of risk assessment to put forward some countermeasures and suggestion to reduce risk degree of each index.