On Real-Time Calculation Of Passenger Flow On Urban Rail Transit Line

Urban rail transit becomes the preferred way to travel for more and more travelers because it is convenient and on-time. So the passenger flow of rail transit is increasing fast. However, the increasing passenger flow brings congestion, which reduces the comfort of passenger traveling and makes operation and management for urban rail more difficult.Knowing well about the real-time passenger flow in rail transit system can provide guidance for passenger’s travel, which makes passengers be able to choose a reasonable way to travel. At the same time, it can make department of rail transit operation and management make some real-time adjustment of the operating plan. Thus, knowing the situation of real-time passenger flow in rail transit system is of great significance. This paper studies the calculation method of real-time passenger flow with rail transit lines as the study object. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) IC card data contains large amounts of information related to passenger trip. Analyzing and excavating IC card data can provide data support for predicting passenger trip characteristic. IC card data organization of routine bus system is analyzed and its application is simply introduced. Based on the analysis of rail transit IC card data organization, method of obtaining OD at different time interval and downstream and upstream diversion ratio of passengers into the station based on IC card record is introduced, which can support the calculation of platform real-time arrivals.(2) After analyzing the process of passenger entering platform in rail transit, with real-time statistical card record at the station ticket gate as input, combining the law of passenger walking time at the channel, the calculation model of platform real-time arrivals is established with probability theory. With logarithmic normal distribution function as the density function of passenger walking time at the channel and the fitted curve of historical IC card data as IC real-time card record, specific examples is designed to calculate the amount of platform real-time arrivals. The simulation experiments have proved the effectiveness of the algorithm.(3) Calculation method of rail transit line real-time passenger flow is studied at the base of obtaining the amount of platform real-time arrivals. The existing model which is based on train-platform interaction is detailedly analyzed and its limitation is that all passengers who arrive at the platform at different time interval are supposed to get on the train with the same proportion. This paper makes modification based on the model, which makes waiting passenger get on the train following the rule that who comes early is serviced first. The modified calculation model is more in line with reality. Then its algorithm is described. Feasibility of the model and algorithm is testified by setting numerical examples.(4) The application field of calculation model of rail transit line real-time passenger flow is analyzed. Its application on rail transit passenger flow precaution and station management is emphatically studied. During a train moves forward, it will make prediction about the passenger flow condition of following stations every time it arrives a station. Rail transit real-time passenger flow precaution process is simulated and analyzed by setting specific simulation conditions.