Simulation Study On Effect And Measures Of Traffic Demand Management In Beijing

In recent years, with the rapid increase of the number of mobile vehicle in city, traffic problems emerge in endlessly, such as traffic congestion, pollution and so on, which will cause immeasurable influence to the economy and environment of city. Traffic demand management arises at the historic moment which will adapt to the sustainable development of urban traffic. Traffic demand management aims at reducing the traffic demand, or counterbalancing the traffic flow in time and space, so as to maintain a relatively balance between traffic demand and supply, which will make the structure reasonable and thus improve the traffic operation conditions, reduce environmental pollution and promote economic development. As the association and mechanism of action of urban traffic, economy, and environment are complex, it’s necessary for us to confirm the effect of traffic demand management measures have been implemented and to simulate their future effect, which will make references for public and decision-makers.With the background of Beijing city traffic, this paper starts with the current situation of traffic demand and supply, social economy, population, environment, and then analyses the necessity and urgency to implement traffic demand management in Beijing. Meanwhile this paper analyzes the current situation and mechanism of action of traffic demand management so as to confirm the applicability of traffic demand management that has been implemented in Beijing. On the basis of this, the paper makes association analysis for the systems of urban traffic, population, environment, economy and establishes the mechanism of interaction of these systems, so as to set up the system dynamic platform for the effect of traffic demand management measures, which will provide a tool for the current effect validation and future effect simulation of urban traffic demand management strategies. Meanwhile this paper has made the model effectiveness test through the operation results of2005-2007. Finally, along with the idea of first single then comprehensive, this paper simulate and analyze the effect of current three traffic demand measures in2005-2020in Beijing. The operation results of2008-2010are used to make the implementation effect validation. By analyzing the data of Beijing urban traffic system operation practice, this paper verifies the coherence of the actual and the system running results. By the contrast analysis of system running results in2011-2020, this paper also make some suggestions for the future implementation of traffic demand management strategy in Beijing.