System Dynamics Model Of Urban Traffic Supply And Demand Disequilibrium And Its Application

Urban traffic supply and demand operates in a norm disequilibrium state and is influenced by numerous dynamic changing factors.The components within the system of traffic supply and demand interact on each other and form a dynamic feedback structure.In order to overcome the defects of traditional equilibrium theory,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to use the disequilibrium theory to research on the relationship between urban traffic supply and demand.With building up the system dynamics model of relationship evolution of urban traffic supply and demand disequilibrium,based on system?dynamic and comprehensive point of view,the formation mechanism and evolution process of traffic supply and demand disequilibrium is simulated,then the corresponding development policies are put forward to alleviate the increasingly prominent contradiction between traffic supply and demand.Based on disequilibrium theory in economics,the disequilibrium relationship between urban traffic supply and demand is researched,including theory analysis?system structure analysis?system dynamics model establishment and model testing and simulation.The details are as follows:Firstly of all,the basic contradictions and problems are determined,and the system dynamics fundamental theory and methods as well as its features are described,and the system characteristics of the urban traffic system and the causes of its disequilibrium are analyzed,then the basic process of the system model of urban traffic supply and demand disequilibrium is introduced.Secondly,the system structure of urban traffic supply and demand is analyzed.From the viewpoint of traffic supply and demand contradiction,the connotation?influence factors and disequilibrium conception of traffic supply and demand are discussed.The system boundary is determined and system elements are confirmed.Main system causal relationship chain and the causal relationship map is draw up to analysis the system feedback loops.Again,based on the analysis of urban traffic supply and demand structure and feedback loops,system flow diagram is build by using VEMSIM computer language to modeling the urban traffic supply and demand system.Determinations of accurate analysis equations and essential parameters are also done.Finally,the system dynamics model is test and simulated.Combining the actual data of statistical yearbook and construction achieves in Dongguan city with the model simulated results,the validity of the model is confirmed.Predicting the evolution process of urban traffic supply and demand,the results proves that traffic supply and demand dynamically stay in a basic equilibrium.By changing the relevant policies of the variables in the model,policy experiments are carried out,the influence of motor vehicle policy and traffic investment policy on the disequilibrium between supply and demand are analyzed.