Research On The Mid-long Load Forecasting Of Ximeng Area

Load Forecasting is the important premise for power system dispatch, synchronous control, operate plan and development program. The precision of load forecast influents the quality of grid planning. In a setting of the12th five-year-plan scheme composing, the paper researches on the power consumption of the whole society and maximum load of local grid deeply, especially for the forecasting model.First of all, it introduces the purpose and significance and development at home and abroad of load forecasting generally. And then it presents the concept, principles, characters, classification and models of load forecasting. It comes into the analysis of electricity composition and load of Ximeng area after the introduction of economy and social development, and grid survey.It forecasts electricity consumption and maximum load for last five years with many methods. And then, it finds the best method through checking and analyzing the forecasting results for next five years load forecasting. It is proved that the combined forecasting is better than single model for the precision of the unknown. Although sometimes the error of single model is very small, the error is uneven distribution.Three improved grey models are suggested. And it is proved that the exponential smoothing grey model and residual correction is effective in the third part.Finally it summaries the research procedure and content and suggests for future forecasting of local grid.